- BIMCO’s Tanker Shipping Market Overview & Outlook (August 2025) projects a potential recovery in freight rates in the second half of 2025.
- The crude tanker market is expected to remain balanced in 2025–2026, supported by rising oil supply, while the product tanker market could weaken due to shorter sailing distances and accelerating fleet growth.
- OPEC+ production increases may create a global oil surplus, while Asia drives demand growth and OECD demand stagnates.
- Supply growth remains a key challenge, particularly for product tankers, with deliveries from a large order book expected to weigh on the market.
BIMCO has released its Tanker Shipping Market Overview & Outlook for August 2025, forecasting that freight rates could start improving during the second half of 2025.
Crude vs. Product Tankers
The report predicts a balanced crude tanker market in both 2025 and 2026 as increased oil supply generates new demand. In contrast, the product tanker market is expected to weaken, affected by reduced sailing distances and faster fleet expansion.
“We forecast a balanced development in the crude tanker market in 2025 and 2026 while we expect the product tanker market to remain weaker than in 2024. The product tanker suffers under the weight of increasing supply growth and weaker demand growth due to shorter sailing distances,” said Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.
Geopolitics and Oil Supply
Peace negotiations in Ukraine could potentially reshape trade flows, while OPEC+ may reverse production increases if demand proves insufficient. According to the IEA, higher OPEC+ output is projected to create an oil surplus averaging 2.3 mbpd in H2 2025 and 3.0 mbpd in 2026, peaking at 4.1 mbpd in Q1 2026.
“As a result of increased OPEC+ production, the IEA expects an oil surplus averaging 2.3 mbpd during the second half of 2025 and 3.0 mbpd during 2026 while peaking at 4.1 mbpd in the first quarter of 2026,” Rasmussen explained.
Supply Trends
The IMF forecasts global GDP growth of 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, an improvement on previous forecasts but still lower than historic levels. The IEA has raised oil supply projections by 1.5 mbpd for H2 2025 and 1.8 mbpd for 2026 due to OPEC+ policy changes, while oil demand expectations have been trimmed by 0.2 mbpd in both periods.
Crude tanker supply growth is expected at 0.5% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, while product tanker supply growth is forecast at 3.5% in 2025 and 6.5% in 2026, driven by the delivery of new tonnage.
Demand and Trade Routes
BIMCO’s outlook does not assume a full return to normal Suez Canal routings, although more product tankers have recently used the canal, shortening sailing distances. Demand continues to grow in Asia, while OECD markets show little change.
“During the first half of 2025 both crude and product tanker year-on-year demand growth as well as rates and prices development has been negative. We predict that demand will begin to improve during the second half of the year, but that product tanker rates and prices could still fall behind 2024 levels due to high supply growth,”
commented Rasmussen.
Did you subscribe to our daily Newsletter?
It’s Free Click here to Subscribe!
Source: safety4sea
