- Sanctioned tankers lifted 36% of all Russian oil exports in July, handling nearly half of crude shipments.
- Greek-owned vessels carried 30% of Russia’s oil, but their role is set to diminish as the EU and UK tighten price caps.
- Russia’s growing dependence on its shadow fleet heightens compliance risks and enforcement challenges for global trade.
In July, sanctioned tankers carried 36% of all Russian oil exports, underscoring the growing importance of the shadow fleet amid Western restrictions. Data from Windward’s Maritime AI™ platform and Vortexa’s commodity tracking shows these vessels lifted 60 million barrels of the 165 million exported from major Russian ports.
Half of Russia’s crude exports were shipped on sanctioned vessels, with Ural crude averaging $58.99/bbl—just under the G7’s $60/bbl cap. ESPO crude from Kozmino averaged $65/bbl, above the threshold.
Greek Tankers and the Price Cap Challenge
Greek-owned vessels carried 30% of Russian-origin oil in July, including 38% of refined products such as diesel. These shipments remain compliant under the G7 price cap, which permits exports below $60/bbl for crude, $100/bbl for refined products, and $45/bbl for fuel oil.
However, Greek crude shipments—currently at 20% of the total—are expected to decline to zero as the EU and UK lower the cap to $47.80/bbl in September and October. This change will effectively shut Greek owners out of Russia’s crude trade, leaving a 20% gap in available tanker tonnage.
Buyers, Markets, and Sanction Evasion
Despite restrictions, Russia’s main buyers—China and India—continue to receive crude shipped on EU- and UK-sanctioned tankers. U.S.-sanctioned vessels face greater difficulties, limiting their trading flexibility.
Refined products, including diesel, were exported using vessels flagged across 25 countries, highlighting the complex global footprint of Russia’s oil trade.
Rising Compliance Risks for Global Shipping
Windward’s July analysis flagged high sanctions compliance risks for 63% of Russia-trading tankers. Nearly one-third of the 300 ships lifting Russian oil were sanctioned, and 98% of those had been labeled “high risk” before formal designation.
As Greek owners withdraw, Russia’s reliance on its shadow fleet will deepen further. This shift not only increases compliance and enforcement risks for regulators but also complicates the chartering market for buyers still sourcing Russian crude.
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Source: Windward
