- HSFO and VLSFO declined, while MGO saw a modest gain; indices showed signs of moderate growth.
- Shipments reached 9.33 million tons in August, with Europe taking two-thirds of the volume.
- Prices remain five times higher than MGO, delaying its large-scale adoption as a marine fuel.
At the close of the 37th week, the MABUX global bunker indices showed mixed dynamics without a clear overall direction. The 380 HSFO index dropped by USD 13.43 to USD 452.40/MT, moving closer to the USD 450 mark. The VLSFO index also declined, falling by USD 13.45 to USD 540.86/MT, slipping below the USD 550 threshold. In contrast, the MGO index posted a slight gain of USD 1.17, rising to USD 777.05/MT. As of the latest update, bunker indices indicated moderate growth momentum.
Scrubber Spread Shows Divergence Across Ports
The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS)—the price gap between 380 HSFO and VLSFO—remained nearly unchanged, moving marginally lower from USD 88.48 to USD 88.46. Rotterdam saw an increase in the spread to USD 68.00, while Singapore registered a decline to USD 78.00. Weekly averages also reflected this divergence, with spreads continuing to fluctuate within established ranges. VLSFO fuel is expected to remain more profitable than the HSFO plus scrubber option in the near term.
US LNG Exports Reach Record High
The United States set a new record for LNG exports in August, shipping 9.33 million tons—surpassing the previous April peak. Europe remained the dominant destination, importing 6.16 million tons, while shipments to Asia declined to 1.47 million tons. Despite strong short-term demand, concerns are rising about potential oversupply, with Bloomberg projecting supply to exceed demand by 63 million tons by 2030 as new liquefaction projects come online.
European Gas Storage and TTF Benchmark Movements
As of September 9, European gas storage facilities were 79.63% full, 8.30% higher than at the start of the year, though the pace of injections is slowing. The TTF gas benchmark in Europe edged higher, rising by 1.159 euros/MWh to reach 32.931 euros/MWh by the end of the week.
LNG Bunker Prices Decline at Sines
At the Port of Sines, LNG bunker fuel prices recorded a sharp fall of USD 51, dropping to USD 711.00/MT. This reversed the previous week’s trend, with LNG now priced below conventional fuel by USD 51. On the same date, MGO LS was quoted at USD 755.00/MT. The shift underscores growing competitiveness for LNG bunkering in certain regions.
Market Differential Index Highlights Undervaluation
The updated MABUX Benchmark Market Differential Index (MDI) showed continued undervaluation across most major ports. In the 380 HSFO segment, values stayed close to parity with the digital benchmark, while VLSFO saw Houston move into the overvalued category. For MGO LS, undervaluation persisted across all hubs, with steep declines noted in Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston. The overall trend points toward a gradual rebalancing between market prices and the digital benchmark.
Ammonia’s High Costs Delay Adoption as Marine Fuel
DNV identified ammonia’s cost as the main barrier to its adoption in shipping. Green ammonia prices in Northwest Europe remain around USD 2,900/tMGOe—five times higher than conventional MGO, excluding bunkering and distribution costs. Blue ammonia, meanwhile, is only in limited early production. Large-scale adoption requires heavy investment, with ammonia bunkering barges costing up to USD 30 million each. Although prices could fall to USD 1,000–1,900/tMGOe by 2050 with technological progress and regulatory incentives, ammonia will remain a niche fuel in the near term, suitable only for select shipowners.
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Source: MABUX on LinkedIn
