- Container shipping rates from Asia to the US are set to decline as import volumes ease.
- A near-record summer peak reflects stockpiling ahead of tariff hikes.
- Rising tariffs and unclear trade policy cloud long-term business planning.
Shipping container rates from Asia to the US are expected to face sustained downward pressure as import volumes at major US ports decline over the remainder of the year. The near-record peak in volumes during summer was driven by retailers front-loading goods ahead of anticipated tariff increases.
Retailers Stock Up Amid Tariff Concerns
According to the Global Port Tracker from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, July volumes surged by 20% compared with June, as companies rushed to bring in merchandise before tariffs scheduled for August. This stockpiling has left US retailers with high inventory levels, reducing the need for strong import volumes in the coming months.
Uncertainty in Trade Policy Challenges Planning
NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold noted that unpredictable US trade policy is making it “impossible to make the long-term plans that are critical to future business success.” This uncertainty adds another layer of pressure on retailers and supply chains already navigating tariff-related disruptions.
Tariffs Drive Pessimistic Outlook
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett emphasized that tariffs have had a significant impact on trade flows, fueling a pessimistic outlook for the remainder of the year. The imbalance created by early import surges and reduced demand going forward is expected to weigh heavily on shipping rates.
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Source: ICIS
