- DNV’s Maritime Forecast to 2050 highlights that shipping is shifting from preparation to action, with alternative-fuel-capable vessels set to nearly double by 2028.
- By 2030, the fleet could burn up to 50 Mtoe of low-GHG fuels—yet current use is just 1 Mtoe, exposing a critical supply-demand gap.
- Solutions like biofuels, onboard carbon capture, and wind-assisted propulsion are emerging, but require stronger integration, infrastructure, and regulatory clarity.
Shipping’s energy transition is moving into a decisive phase marked by strategic investments, accelerating fleet readiness, and evolving regulations. With the IMO’s Net-Zero Framework (NZF) approved but awaiting adoption in October, shipowners are moving from preparation to action. The number of alternative-fuel-capable vessels is projected to nearly double by 2028, underlining industry commitment to decarbonization.
Capacity versus Consumption of Low-GHG Fuels
By 2030, the alternative-fuel fleet will be able to consume up to 50 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) of low-GHG fuels annually—twice the volume needed to meet IMO’s 2030 emissions target. Yet current consumption stands at just 1 Mtoe, revealing a widening gap between fleet readiness and fuel supply. Fuel producers and infrastructure developers must accelerate efforts to close this gap.
Industry Perspectives on the Transition
Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, CEO of DNV Maritime, noted that while the NZF has imperfections, it is already shaping investment and operational strategies. The October IMO meeting will play a decisive role in setting long-term policy foundations. Eirik Ovrum, Lead Author of the report, added that while technical progress is evident, solutions remain fragmented. Integration into fleet strategies, infrastructure development, and compliance recognition are now crucial.
Pathways to Bridging the Gap
The report outlines measures to align readiness with supply. Existing fuel infrastructure can be leveraged for biofuels and bio-LNG, supported by flexible custody models. Energy-efficiency measures on newbuilds are immediately reducing emissions, while onboard carbon capture offers the potential to offset substantial fuel demand if CO₂ hubs are established at key ports.
Emerging Role of Wind-Assisted Propulsion
2025 could mark a breakthrough year for maritime wind energy. Wind-assisted propulsion systems (WAPS) are gaining wider adoption, with early evidence showing 5–20% reductions in fuel use for certain ships.
Preparing for the Decade Ahead
DNV’s Maritime Forecast to 2050 concludes that stakeholders must prepare early, assess cost-effective pathways, and integrate technologies with infrastructure and regulations. Compliance strategies will differ across vessel types and operations, but the next phase of transition offers both challenges and opportunities to reshape global shipping.
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Source: DNV
