- Summer import volumes hit near-record highs as retailers rushed to stock up ahead of rising tariffs, but monthly cargo volumes are now forecast to fall through the end of 2025.
- Ongoing trade uncertainty and escalating tariffs are disrupting long-term planning for retailers and driving up supply chain costs that could lead to higher prices for U.S. consumers.
- Full-year import volumes are expected to decline 3.4% from 2024, with sharper year-over-year drops forecast in the final months of 2025 and into early 2026.
After a surge in imports this summer—driven largely by retailers moving goods early to beat incoming tariffs—U.S. ports are now facing a projected decline in container volumes. July saw 2.36 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU), a 20.1% increase from June and one of the busiest months on record. However, that momentum is expected to reverse, with port volumes falling steadily from August through the end of the year.
Tariffs Driving Supply Chain Disruptions
The escalating trade war and broader application of sectoral tariffs are creating serious supply chain challenges for U.S. retailers. According to NRF’s Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, Jonathan Gold, retailers stocked up early, but the unpredictable nature of trade policy is preventing the kind of long-term planning essential for business stability. The resulting logistical and financial pressures are likely to lead to higher prices for American consumers.
Legal and Political Uncertainty Clouding Trade Outlook
Though a federal appeals court ruled against former President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose certain tariffs, the tariffs remain in place while the decision is appealed to the Supreme Court. Meanwhile, a 90-day delay on additional tariffs targeting China has pushed enforcement to November 10. A new 25% tariff on India, which took effect in late August, raised the total tariff burden on some goods to 50%. These shifting policies continue to complicate planning for importers.
Forecast: Declines Across the Board in Late 2025
Imports are expected to continue declining on a monthly basis throughout the rest of the year. September is forecast at 2.12 million TEU, down 6.8% year over year. October and November will see steeper drops of 13.2% and 19.7%, respectively, with December expected to be the slowest month since March 2023. This decline is partially due to the early peak season in 2025 and elevated imports in late 2024, which were driven by concerns over labor disruptions at ports.
Annual Outlook: First Half Gains Offset by Second Half Losses
Despite growth in the first half of the year—totaling 12.53 million TEU, up 3.6% year over year—the full-year outlook shows a projected 3.4% drop from 2024’s total of 25.5 million TEU. January 2026 is already forecast to be down 19.1% from the prior year, signaling a sluggish start to the new year and ongoing volatility in global trade patterns.
Coverage and Methodology of Global Port Tracker
The Global Port Tracker, compiled by Hackett Associates for the NRF, provides historical data and forecasts for major U.S. ports, including those on the West Coast (Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle/Tacoma), East Coast (New York/New Jersey, Savannah, Charleston, and others), and Gulf Coast (Houston). NRF uses the report to help retailers and policymakers understand and respond to the shifting dynamics of international trade and supply chain performance.
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Source: Portnews
