- The world’s five most vital maritime chokepoints face mounting threats from conflict, piracy, and environmental risks, with oil and LNG flows already declining since 2023.
- Disruptions or closures at these narrow sea routes could trigger supply chain breakdowns, soaring energy prices, and severe economic consequences.
- Alternatives like pipelines and the Cape of Good Hope are gaining importance, but Asia and Europe remain highly exposed to chokepoint instability.
Rystad Energy’s latest analysis highlights growing instability at the world’s five key maritime chokepoints — narrow shipping routes that carry most of the world’s oil and gas flows. In 2023, these chokepoints handled an estimated 71.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil and petroleum products and 26 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) of LNG. By 2024, volumes had already slipped to 65 million bpd and 24.8 Bcfd, reflecting both temporary disruptions and signs of a longer-term shift.
Attacks offshore Yemen, rising Iran-Israel tensions, and piracy threats are prompting rerouting through the Cape of Good Hope and alternative pipelines. The U.S., with stronger domestic production, is less affected than Asia and Europe, which remain deeply dependent on the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca, leaving China particularly vulnerable.
Strait of Malacca
The Strait of Malacca remains the world’s busiest trade chokepoint, carrying about 24 million bpd of oil and gas. This narrow link between the Indian and Pacific Oceans transports much of the Middle East’s crude and LNG to Asia, with China accounting for half of all imports and Saudi Arabia as the largest exporter. Since the pandemic, volumes have risen by 2.1 million bpd as of 2024. Although piracy is an ongoing concern, no major incidents have been reported recently.
Strait of Hormuz
Located between Iran and the Gulf states, the Strait of Hormuz is the most strategically sensitive chokepoint, handling one-fifth of global maritime oil trade — about 14 million bpd — and a fifth of LNG flows. Roughly half of Saudi and UAE exports, and one-fourth of China’s oil needs, pass through this waterway. Qatar also relies on it for two-thirds of its daily gas exports, about 16.3 Bcfd.
Rystad notes that China’s LNG imports via Hormuz have increased 2.5 times in the past five years. A closure would cut nearly half of Middle Eastern oil exports, destabilizing markets and spiking prices. To mitigate risks, regional countries have invested in alternative pipelines, such as Saudi Arabia’s East-West Crude Pipeline, the UAE’s Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, and Iran’s Goreh-Jask route.
Suez Canal and Bab el-Mandeb
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait links the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and is critical for ships transiting the Suez Canal. Before late 2023, it accounted for 12% of global seaborne oil trade. But Houthi attacks slashed traffic by nearly 50% within six months, and volumes remain depressed.
The Suez Canal, supported by Egypt’s SUMED pipeline, continues to provide a vital connection to the Mediterranean. However, a prolonged closure of Bab el-Mandeb would force vessels to bypass the canal entirely, diverting traffic around the Cape of Good Hope and raising costs, voyage times, and supply chain stress.
Turkish Straits
The Bosporus and Dardanelles waterways, known collectively as the Turkish Straits, handle around 5% of global maritime oil trade, with 3.5 million bpd of crude and 0.5 Bcfd of LNG transiting annually. Russia is the largest contributor, accounting for 40% of flows, while Turkiye receives about one-sixth of shipments.
Transit volumes dipped during the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war but have since rebounded. Still, risks remain high due to geopolitical tensions, the narrow geography of the straits, and the threat of accidents or oil spills. Alternatives like the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and Iraq-Turkiye pipeline provide some relief, but the chokepoint remains strategically vital.
Cape of Good Hope
The Cape of Good Hope has emerged as the primary fallback route during chokepoint crises. Once handling 7 million bpd in 2021, volumes dipped to 6 million bpd in 2023 but surged to 8.7 million bpd in 2024 as Red Sea insecurity forced rerouting. China is the main destination, receiving 40% of crude via this path, with shipments also coming from the U.S., South America, and the Middle East.
Though costlier and slower, the Cape is currently considered safer than other chokepoints. For many traders, its reliability outweighs the longer voyages, making it an increasingly critical artery for global oil flows.
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Source: Rystad Energy
