- C3 and C5 routes maintain strong support amid rising demand.
- Panamax spot rates firm on ECSA and US Gulf to Far East routes.
- Supramax rates continue to steadily grow with falling vessel supply.
China’s iron ore imports saw a boost in August, thanks to dropping ore prices and seasonal restocking by steel mills. Brazilian exports were the standout performers, jumping 7% from the previous month and exceeding August 2024 levels by around 3 million tons — marking the highest monthly total for 2025. This uptick has already been reflected in increased Capesize iron ore days. To maintain imports above 100 million tons, we’ll need to keep an eye on ore prices and port inventories, reports Break Wave Advisors.
Strong Support on C3 and C5 Routes
As we moved into early September, the C3 and C5 routes showed impressive resilience. Rates are currently at $24 per ton for the Brazil–China route and nearly $11 per ton for the Australia–China route. The C5 route has surpassed the daily demand benchmark of 2 million metric tons, while the C3 route is just above 1 million metric tons. Demand expectations for C5 remain optimistic, leading to a stronger absorption of ballasters compared to C3.
Panamax Market Gains Momentum
Panamax spot rates have picked up on routes from East Coast South America (ECSA) and the US Gulf (USG) to the Far East after a quieter week. Prices for ECSA–Far East routes are now 7% higher month-on-month, driven by a decrease in vessels ballasting to ECSA and steady demand.
Supramax Spot Rates Continue to Rise
Supramax spot rates have been on a steady climb, with ECSA–Far East rates at $37 per tonne (an 8% increase monthly) and USG–Far East at $44 per tonne (up 7%). Since July, these gains have been bolstered by a significant drop in vessel supply, with active counts in USG/USEC now around 80, down from over 100 in June.
Ballaster Distribution by Vessel Class
- Capesize: South Atlantic down 5%, North Atlantic up 40%. Pacific shows better absorption with a 5% decrease in Far East/NOPAC and 6% in Australasia.
- Panamax: Pacific up 10% (Australasia, Feast/NOPAC), South Atlantic down 1%, North Atlantic steady.
- Supramax: Oversupply persists. Australasia up 20%, Indian Ocean/South Africa up 15%. Atlantic rises sharply, South up 28%, North up 25%.
- Handysize: Significant increases across basins. Far East/NOPAC up 22%, Australasia up 25%, South Atlantic up 20%, North Atlantic up moderately.
Tonne-Day Growth Fueled by Chinese Demand
This year, Capesize tonne-days for iron ore shipments to the Far East are showing a notable uptick compared to the last two years. After a dip in July, growth bounced back in Q3, with August seeing a boost thanks to strong Chinese imports. According to Mysteel data, daily hot metal production held steady at 2.41 million tons in August, marking a 5% increase from the previous year. Additionally, steel mills have been proactively restocking, which has further supported these import levels.
Increasing Congestion at Tianjin Port
The congestion at Tianjin Port is getting worse. Last week, over 120 vessels were waiting, and now delays have ballooned to around 13 days. The Supramax segment is feeling the brunt of this situation, and it’s still unclear whether things will improve in the latter half of September.
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Source: Break Wave Advisors
