The Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) market is showing strong momentum, with spot rates surging close to the six-figure mark, prompting analysts to expect further upside through the remainder of 2025, reports Lloyd’s List.
Market watchers say that fundamentals—such as rising crude exports from the Middle East, increasing Atlantic-to-Pacific basin flows, and potential shifts toward floating or seasonal storage—are reinforcing the bullish outlook.
VLCC Spot Rates Approach $100k Threshold
As of mid-September, industry data puts average global VLCC spot rates at approximately US$88,900/day. Among those, “eco” VLCCs—that is, more fuel-efficient and lower emissions vessels—are commanding even higher rates, around US$93,100/day, while standard non-eco VLCCs are fetching roughly US$85,000/day.
Several recent fixtures underscore the strength: for example, a Middle East Gulf-to-China voyage chartered at Worldscale 95 yielded about US$90,700/day, and a short-haul Middle East Gulf-to-India charter achieved nearly US$120,000/day. These high-profile contracts are helping establish a new baseline for VLCC earnings, with rates now well above their five-year averages.
Analysts argue that the full effect of OPEC+ production increases, together with growing exports and possible inventory pressure, could push VLCC demand even higher. In particular, traders are looking closely at whether oil pricing moves from backwardation to contango. Such a shift could incentivize traders to use more floating storage; as land-based storage becomes saturated, floating storage can absorb idle supply and lend support to charter rates.
Floating storage has proven powerful in past cycles: when large volumes of the global tanker fleet were tied up in storage (as in 2020), VLCC rates spiked above US$200,000/day. Even a modest return of floating storage now, together with strong export flows and tight market conditions, is viewed by analysts as a potential catalyst for spot rates to move past US$100,000/day.
All in all, the VLCC segment is in the midst of a pronounced up-cycle. After lagging behind other tanker segments for some time, VLCCs are now benefiting from a convergence of favorable trends. If recent momentum holds—seasonality, geopolitical uncertainties, export flows—rates are expected to strengthen further toward year-end.
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Source: Lloyd’s List
