The U.S. container shipping sector is facing one of its sharpest volume declines in decades, driven largely by the growing impact of recently imposed tariffs, reports gCaptain.
U.S. container imports face historic decline
In August, container imports at the ten largest U.S. ports showed almost no growth—up just 0.1% year-over-year—while exports declined by 2.6%. This follows a modest increase in July and a drop in June, highlighting an overall downward trend.
One factor cushioning the August numbers was a temporary exemption from the new tariff policy. Cargo that was already in transit before the August 7 deadline, and arrived before October 5, was allowed to enter without penalty. This led to a surge in shipments just before the deadline, with some vessels reportedly slow-steaming across the Pacific to time their arrival post-deadline while still qualifying for the exemption.
Globally, containerized trade has continued to grow, especially in regions like the Far East, where export volumes hit new records. This contrast underscores how the U.S. is becoming increasingly isolated in terms of container traffic, as trade routes adjust to tariff-driven changes in demand and policy.
Forecasts for the rest of the year are increasingly pessimistic. One major retail group expects overall container imports into the U.S. to decline by 3.4% in 2025. Despite a slight year-to-date increase through August, reaching that forecast would require a sharp drop in volumes—possibly as much as 15%—over the final months of the year.
Early indicators suggest such a drop is already underway. The Port of Los Angeles, for example, expects inbound volumes for September to fall by approximately 10% compared to last year. Booking data for shipments from China to the U.S. shows a significant decline, down around 26% in early September year-over-year. If the paused reciprocal tariffs on Chinese goods are reinstated in mid-November, the downtrend may accelerate.
Another looming factor is a new fee structure targeting foreign-built or foreign-operated vessels, set to begin in mid-October. This policy could further reshape key trade routes, especially those between the U.S. and China—routes that currently represent over a quarter of all global container shipping miles.
There is a growing recognition that these trade shifts come with complex trade-offs. While reduced import volumes may help control inflation, they also threaten to dampen business activity and broader economic growth. Balancing these priorities will be a key challenge for policymakers as the economic landscape evolves in 2025.
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Source: gCaptain
