A new report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) highlights a global maritime trade environment characterized by volatility, rerouted flows, and unprecedented uncertainty, comparable to the sustained disruption following the 1967 Suez Canal closure.
Global Maritime Trade Volume
- Growth in 2024: Maritime trade volumes reached 12,720 million tons in 2024, representing a growth of 2.2%. This rate surpassed the 2013–2023 average of 1.8%.
- Deceleration: The 2024 growth rate lagged the longer-term 2003–2023 average (2.9%), indicating a long-term deceleration in the expansion of global volume.
Geopolitical Disruptions and Rerouting
Persistent geopolitical tensions and conflicts are causing significant, sustained disruption at critical maritime chokepoints:
- Suez Canal/Red Sea: Ongoing uncertainty in the Red Sea has caused shipping to avoid the Suez Canal, with transit levels in May 2025 about 70% below 2023 averages. Rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope has increased distance-adjusted demand.
- Strait of Hormuz Risk: The June 2025 conflict between Iran and Israel raised concerns over the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 11% of global maritime trade volume (including significant oil, LPG, and container traffic). Rerouting here would increase voyage distances and costs, and potentially trap ships, tightening supply.
- Altered Shipping Patterns: Geopolitical tensions and trade policy changes have led to the rerouting of flows away from traditional chokepoints, resulting in longer hauls and increasingly diversified, complex supply chain networks.
Trade Policy and Tariffs
Shifts in trade policy and the deployment of new tariffs are driving volatility and value chain reconfiguration:
- U.S. Trade Policy: Since January 2025, new trade tariffs and changes in U.S. policy have increased uncertainty, with countries like Canada, India, Mexico, Thailand, and Vietnam benefiting from rerouted trade flows, similar to the 2018 U.S.-China tariff escalation.
- China’s Dominance: China remains the main source of scheduled container capacity in 2025, despite trade shifts.
- U.S. Shipbuilding Push: The U.S. is pursuing a domestic-focused industrial policy, including new port fees targeting certain ships, to boost national shipbuilding and counter China’s dominance in maritime logistics.
Container Market and Fleet Capacity
- Container Expansion: Containerized trade is expanding, particularly along extraregional corridors, with East–West routes remaining dominant due to Asia’s central role.
- Capacity Surplus Concerns: New vessel deliveries, especially in the container segment, coupled with slowed trade growth in some markets, are reviving concerns about a potential fleet capacity surplus and asset underutilization once distance-adjusted demand normalizes.
- Ship Recycling Low: Ship recycling levels in 2024 remained low, matching 2023 at 6.3 million gross tons (0.25% of the global fleet). The concentration of limited recycling capacity in Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Türkiye poses challenges for timely fleet renewal amid an aging global fleet.
Energy Transition and Emissions
The sector is undergoing a structural transformation under the pressure of strengthened environmental targets:
- Emissions Growth: Shipping carbon emissions increased by an estimated 5% in 2024 over 2023, driven by continued rerouting and increased sailing speeds.
- Speed Trends: Average container ship speeds increased, especially for the largest vessels, as they sailed faster to maintain service schedules due to rerouting. LNG carrier speeds also climbed in 2024 due to chokepoint disruption.
- Decarbonization Regulation: The International Maritime Organization (IMO) approved new midterm greenhouse gas reduction measures in April 2025, combining mandatory fuel intensity limits and a greenhouse gas pricing mechanism. These measures are expected to be formally adopted in October 2025 and implemented in 2028.
- Critical Minerals: Trade in critical minerals, vital for clean energy transitions, remains highly concentrated in a handful of exporters, increasing exposure to strategic and logistical chokepoints.
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Source: Safety4sea
