- Refinery maintenance in the Middle East and India may cut up to 30 LR2 cargoes in 4Q25.
- Saudi Arabia could see as many as 14 lost LR2 loadings, mainly diesel exports.
- Indian turnarounds coincide with peak domestic demand, reducing long-haul exports to Europe.
- Reduced refining capacity may boost Middle East–Asia crude exports, supporting VLCC demand.
Refinery maintenance across the Middle East and India is expected to tighten product tanker availability in the final quarter of 2025. The impact could be significant, with up to 30 LR2 cargoes at risk of being removed from the market due to reduced output. According to a recent report by BRS Shipbrokers, this shift may reshape refined product and crude flows in the months ahead.
Scheduled refinery turnarounds in the Middle East, cutting around 3.1 million barrels per day of capacity, and in India, curbing another 480,000 barrels per day, are set to reduce long-range product exports. This decline translates to the potential loss of 25–30 LR2 cargoes from the fourth-quarter average of 250. Saudi Arabia alone could account for up to 14 missed LR2 loadings, primarily linked to diesel exports.
In India, refinery shutdowns overlap with peak domestic demand, leaving less availability for overseas buyers—Europe in particular, which usually absorbs nearly one-fifth of Indian refined product exports. With both Middle Eastern and Indian exports limited, LR2 employment is expected to drop noticeably, applying pressure on freight rates just as 15 new LR2 newbuildings are due to hit the market. At the same time, the removal of 3.6 million barrels per day of refining capacity is expected to lift crude exports from the Middle East to Asia, adding momentum to an already buoyant VLCC market.
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Source: BRS Shipbrokers
