The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) has cautioned that overall traffic through the waterway will remain below pre-drought levels next year, as softer US import demand restrains growth. While container ship passages are breaking records, total daily transits are projected to average just 33 per day in 2026, compared with the Canal’s capacity of 36.
Container Ships Defy the Trend
Container ship traffic has proven remarkably resilient despite last year’s drought. AIS-derived data shows an all-time peak in container vessel passages, with more than 1,920 ships transiting in the first eight months of 2025, compared to 1,892 in the same period of 2022. Unlike dry bulk carriers, containerized cargo volumes were largely shielded from disruption thanks to ACP’s priority access policies, strict scheduling, and long-term slot bookings. The high-value, time-sensitive nature of container goods also helped sustain flows.
Outlook for 2026 and Market Implications
ACP Administrator Dr. Ricaurte Vásquez Morales confirmed that overall traffic will average 33 transits per day next year, underscoring the lasting impact of weaker US import demand. While this remains short of the Canal’s full capacity, it reflects a gradual recovery from the 2023/24 drought restrictions. For stakeholders, the divergence between container shipping resilience and bulk carrier weakness highlights shifting trade dynamics and the importance of strategic slot allocation.
The Panama Canal is at once experiencing record highs in container traffic and restrained overall transit figures. With global trade patterns in flux and US imports cooling, the ACP faces the dual challenge of supporting high-value cargo while managing underutilized capacity. Monitoring tools such as AXSInsights provide shippers and analysts with real-time visibility into traffic at the Panama Canal, Suez Canal, and other key chokepoints, offering crucial insights for navigating these market shifts.
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Source: LinkedIn
