The dry bulk shipping market is currently facing downward pressure, particularly in the Pacific, as the start of the Golden Week holiday in Asia drains activity and tonnage supply builds across multiple segments.
Capesize
The Capesize market is quiet across the entire Pacific region as the holiday approaches, with limited players seeking coverage for mid-October C5 dates (Western Australia/China). East Australia coal activity has also declined this week. The Atlantic is seeing a buildup of ballasting vessels for the C3 route (Brazil/China and West Africa/China), with charter bids becoming a rare sight. This accumulation of prompt tonnage, especially from the Pacific, is expected to create downward pressure for early November C3 dates. Fixtures have recently been concluded at levels below USD 9 per metric ton (pmt) for C5 and in the low USD 23 pmt range for October/November split dates on the C3 route.
Panamax
The Panamax market is struggling overall, with sentiment firmly soft across both basins. In the Atlantic, a growing tonnage list in the Continent and Mediterranean is weighing on rates, as a lack of fresh mineral demand and thinning trans-Atlantic volumes limit fixing. Although there is some fronthaul interest from the US East Coast, it is insufficient to absorb the available supply.
Rates for East Coast South America continue to slide as charterers successfully push levels down against owner resistance. The Pacific has been drained of activity by Golden Week, with most Chinese requirements already covered. With limited fresh demand and a lack of support from FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) markets, fixtures are being concluded below last-done levels, indicating a soft near-term outlook.
Supramax
The Supramax/Ultramax market ended September on a relatively muted note, characterized by soft sentiment in the East due to slow holiday activity, giving charterers the upper hand. The Atlantic remains on a firmer footing, though some question whether the recent rate push from the US Gulf has peaked. The Continent and Mediterranean are stable, and the South Atlantic market is finely balanced.
In Asia, the abundance of prompt tonnage continues to pressure rates lower in both regional and Indian Ocean positions. However, as the monsoon season ends, there are early signs of more cargo volumes emerging from West Coast India. Although period interest for future employment has surfaced, the wide gap between owner bids and charterer offers is preventing deals at current levels. The overall index average has started to correct, reflecting softer overall market conditions despite steady Atlantic
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Source: Fearnleys
