- Week 40 saw mixed MDI trends, with 380 HSFO undervaluation across all major ports and Houston nearing full benchmark alignment.
- VLSFO remained largely undervalued, except for Houston, which was slightly overvalued but moving closer to the benchmark.
- Rotterdam, Singapore, and Fujairah showed widening undervaluation gaps for VLSFO.
- Overall, the MABUX MDI indicates persistent price discrepancies between market bunker prices and digital benchmarks.
Global bunker indices closed Week 40 with mixed movements, as fuel prices shifted in different directions and scrubber spreads continued to narrow. The 380 HSFO index saw a slight uptick, while VLSFO and MGO posted declines, reflecting a market still searching for firm direction. Scrubber spreads also weakened across major ports, dropping below key thresholds but with expectations of a short-term rebound. These insights were shared in a recent update by Sergey Ivanov on LinkedIn.
Natural Gas and LNG Market Trends
Natural gas continues to stand out as the only fossil fuel expected to expand its role in the long-term energy mix of the U.S., China, and India, even as oil and coal use gradually decline. According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, scalability and commercial challenges still limit a direct transition from coal to renewables, underscoring natural gas as a vital bridge fuel in the energy transition. In Europe, gas storage facilities reached 82.59% capacity by September 30, marking a steady increase from the beginning of the year, though injections remain modest. Meanwhile, the European TTF benchmark recorded a slight dip, closing Week 40 at €31.411/MWh. On the bunker side, LNG prices at the port of Sines climbed to USD 778/MT, with the differential moving further in LNG’s favor against conventional fuel, as MGO LS was priced higher at USD 789/MT.
MABUX Market Differential Index Overview
At the close of Week 40, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI) highlighted varying valuation trends across major bunker hubs for both 380 HSFO and VLSFO. In the 380 HSFO segment, all four key ports—Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston—remained undervalued, with weekly averages dropping by 8, 7, 10, and 11 points respectively, while Houston’s MDI approached the 100% correlation level between market bunker prices and the digital benchmark. For VLSFO, Houston stood out as the only overvalued port, though its average MDI declined by 6 points, nearing full alignment with the benchmark. Meanwhile, Rotterdam, Singapore, and Fujairah continued to show undervaluation, with the gap widening by 10, 3, and 4 points respectively.
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Source: Sergey Ivanov, Mabux
