The container shipping market is experiencing a continuation of declining average spot rates, with the September rate spike on the Transpacific trade now completely erased. The overall market is trending downward, although geopolitical risks remain a factor that could trigger future volatility.
Global Spot Rate Trends
The average spot rates across all trades declined last week, ranging from -6.6% to -4.6%. This follows similar, but sharper, drops in the preceding week, indicating a continued soft market trend.
Far East to US Trades (Transpacific)
The short-term market for US-bound cargo from the Far East was highly volatile in September:
- A significant jump in spot rates was observed on September 1.
- By September 30, this spike had been completely wiped out by subsequent rate turbulence and decline.
- As of October 2, rates from the Far East into both US East Coast and US West Coast are down 8% compared to the levels seen at the end of August.
Far East to Europe Trades
The market from the Far East into Europe saw a more consistent decline throughout September, with less drama than the Transpacific route.
- Short-term rates in Northern Europe from the Far East are now below the ‘summer-bubble’ levels that peaked in the first half of July.
- The current rate stands at USD 1,703 per FEU, compared to USD 1,912 per FEU at the end of May.
North Europe to the US East Coast Trade
Spot rates on the Transatlantic route are less volatile but are showing a clear downward movement:
- Rates have fallen 5.5% from one week ago, 5.8% from two weeks ago, and 10.2% from the end of August.
- The current average spot rate is at a 21-month low and the lowest point since end-2023.
Analyst Insight on Market Outlook
The unexpected rate spike in early September serves as a reminder of the market’s underlying volatility. While the general expectation is for freight rates to continue a steady decline for the rest of 2025, Xeneta Chief Analyst Peter Sand cautions that shippers should not become complacent. He notes that with China recently passing legislation allowing it to take countermeasures against nations acting against its trade interests, geopolitical risks still pose a threat of potential “more pain” moving into 2026.
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Source: XENETA
