The recent surge in Marmara wheat prices has been driven by shipping constraints and their complex impact on Turkey’s wheat import needs.
Wheat Price Surge and Shipping Disruptions
The Platts CIF Marmara 12.5% wheat coaster price assessment has reached its highest level in five months. This surge is attributed to unfavorable weather conditions in the Kerch Strait, which have caused vessel delays of up to ten days, along with high freight rates. The current delays have increased the price spread for coasters to a $19/mt premium over the Milling Wheat Marker. As of October 2, the CIF Marmara 12.5% price was assessed at $250/mt, with Azov to Sea of Marmara freight rates jumping from $44/mt to $55/mt within a week.
A local Turkish broker anticipates that high freight rates will likely persist for at least another three to four weeks, with a potential extension through December due to possible cold weather disruptions. Sellers also noted that strong winds have caused the water level in the crucial Don River to drop to 2.8 meters, which is significantly below the ideal 4-meter level for downstream transport to the Sea of Azov.
Turkey’s Wheat Import Demand
Despite the high prices, buyer demand for Black Sea wheat is strong due to low local stocks, though offers are limited because of the absence of available vessels. Turkey’s wheat imports from Russia reached 1.86 million mt between July and September. Millers project total imports for the season to be around 7.5 million mt, a substantial increase from the previous year’s 3.3 million mt, following the relaxation of previous import quota restrictions. Strong import demand is expected to continue until the Turkish Grain Board releases its wheat stocks for purchase, which is anticipated in one to two weeks, potentially clarifying any shifts in the market.
Challenges to Turkey’s Flour Exports
Turkey, the world’s largest flour exporter, is currently facing a decline in its export figures. Millers primarily blame this downturn on the high CIF wheat prices and government import curbs in destination countries. Flour exports reached 564,000 mt since the start of the marketing year in June, a decrease from 676,000 mt the previous year. Export markets are tightening as destination governments introduce taxes and regulations to promote their domestic milling industries. For example, high taxes in South Sudan on non-Ugandan imports have made Turkish flour uncompetitive.
Key Export Market Dynamics
Iraq, Turkey’s largest flour buyer, is increasing support for its domestic production through subsidies and contracts with local mills. However, due to a 2 million mt reduction in Iraq’s 2025-2026 wheat harvests, the country is expected to increase its wheat imports from Turkey. The US Department of Agriculture projects Iraq’s total wheat imports to rise by 400,000 mt, reaching 3 million mt. Elsewhere, Egypt is benefiting from its geographic proximity to the Common Market for Eastern and Southern African countries. In response to losses in the East African market, a Turkish miller stated that companies are shifting focus to emerging markets like West Africa, where they maintain strong sales.
Did you subscribe to our Daily newsletter?
It’s Free! Click here to Subscribe!
Source: S&P Global
