- WTO Raises 2025 Growth Forecast to 2.4%, Cuts 2026 Outlook to 0.5%.
- AI Products and Inventory Frontloading Drive Trade Expansion.
- Maritime Shipping Benefits from Technology-Driven Demand.
Global merchandise trade has outperformed expectations in the first half of 2025, leading the World Trade Organisation (WTO) to boost its annual growth forecast to 2.4%, a significant jump from the previous 0.9% projection made in August. However, the organisation has also lowered its outlook for 2026 to a mere 0.5%, hinting at possible challenges on the horizon for maritime shipping, reports gCaptain.
Technology and Inventory Fuel Trade Growth
As per the WTO’s update on October 7 titled “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics,” two main factors have contributed to this surprising trade growth: a spike in AI-related products and the practice of inventory frontloading ahead of upcoming tariff changes. Shipping volumes for AI components, like semiconductors, servers, and telecommunications gear, soared by 20% year-on-year, making up nearly half of the overall trade increase. The maritime sector has especially reaped the benefits of this tech-driven demand, with global merchandise trade volume rising by 4.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025. The dollar value of trade also climbed by 6% during the same timeframe, following a modest 2% uptick in 2024.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala highlighted emerging market resilience as another positive factor, noting that: “South-South trade grew 8% year-on-year, in value terms, in the first half of 2025, compared to 6% for world trade overall.”
Regional Trade Insights
For shipping companies, keeping an eye on regional trade trends is crucial. Here’s what’s happening:
- The strongest growth in export volumes is coming from Asia and Africa.
- On the flip side, exports are on the decline in North America and the Commonwealth of Independent States.
- When it comes to imports, African nations and Least Developed Countries are seeing the fastest growth.
- Meanwhile, North America is experiencing a drop in imports.
Cooling Outlook for 2026
The downgraded 2026 outlook is primarily linked to higher tariffs implemented by the Trump administration in August 2025, which have begun affecting trade flows. WTO economists warned: “Rising input prices and a slowdown in trade shipments suggest inflation could increase in late 2025 as inventories shrink in tariff-affected, highly-exposed sectors.”
Maritime Services Growth Slows
The maritime services sector is also feeling the pinch, with growth expected to dip from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025, and then further down to 4.4% in 2026. Transport services are projected to take an even sharper hit, plummeting from 4.5% in 2024 to just 2.5% in 2025, and then down to 1.8% in 2026. This slowdown will have a direct impact on shipping companies.
Resilience and Future Opportunities
Despite the challenges, Okonjo-Iweala emphasised: “Trade resilience in 2025 is thanks in no small part to the stability provided by the rules-based multilateral trading system,” while cautioning that: “Today’s disruptions to the global trade system are a call to action for nations to reimagine trade.” For maritime stakeholders, sustained growth in AI-related goods and services represents the primary upside potential for global trade over the medium term, potentially offsetting some headwinds from rising tariffs and trade restrictions.
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Source: gCaptain
