A new analysis from Allied Quantumsea Research, based on AXS data, examines the shifting landscape of the seaborne oil trade as it enters the final quarter of 2025 under geopolitical and policy pressures. The analysis highlights an overall contraction in tonne-miles and details the performance of different vessel segments.
Overall Tonne-Mile Dynamics
Global oil tonne-miles have shown a significant increase over the long term, but are currently experiencing a notable year-to-date contraction.
- Long-Term Trend: Global oil tonne-miles grew by approximately 6% from 15.3 trillion in 2020 to 16.4 trillion in 2024.
- 2025 Contraction: The 2025 year-to-date figure of about 12.2 trillion currently marks a noticeable contraction compared to the 2024 level.
- Commodity Breakdown: Crude oil remains the primary driver of seaborne oil transport demand, representing roughly 70% of total tonne-miles, followed by clean petroleum products (CPP) at about 20%, and fuel oil at nearly 4%.
VLCC Segment Performance
The Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) segment has seen its tonne-miles decline significantly from its historical peak.
- Historical Peak: VLCC tonne-miles grew by about 13% from 6.8 trillion in 2015 to a peak of 7.7 trillion in 2018.
- 2025 Decline: The 2025 year-to-date level of about 5.6 trillion marks a sharp decline of roughly 25% compared to the previous year.
Suezmax Segment Performance
The Suezmax segment experienced a strong gain to its peak, followed by a slight rebound, but is now facing a significant year-on-year contraction.
- Historical Peak: Tonne-miles expanded by approximately 24% from 2.23 trillion in 2015 to a peak of 2.76 trillion in 2018.
- Commodity Focus: Crude oil dominates the Suezmax segment, accounting for around 90.9% of its total tonne-miles, with fuel oil and CPP following distantly.
- 2025 Decline: The current year-to-date level of approximately 1.96 trillion indicates a year-on-year decline of about 26%.
Aframax and LR2 Segments
This combined segment has demonstrated the steadiest long-term growth but also shows a sharp recent decline.
- Long-Term Growth: Tonne-miles rose by roughly 30% from 2.33 trillion in 2015 to a peak of 3.05 trillion in 2024, with activity accelerating since 2022.
- Commodity Focus: Crude oil accounts for 56% of the total tonne-miles, with clean petroleum products (CPP) at 29.3%, and fuel oil at 10.4%.
- 2025 Decline: The 2.26 trillion year-to-date level reflects a 26% year-on-year decline.
Panamax and LR1 Segments
The Panamax/LR1 segments have shown a mild downward trend over the past decade, which is continuing into 2025.
- Downward Trend: Tonne-miles peaked at 855 billion in 2018 before gradually declining by roughly 21% to 673 billion in 2024.
- Commodity Focus: This segment is primarily driven by clean petroleum products (CPP) at 68.2% of total tonne-miles.
- 2025 Decline: The 2025 year-to-date figure of nearly 529 billion represents an additional 21% year-on-year decline.
MR Segment Performance
The Medium Range (MR) combined segment has remained buoyant over the long term, despite the current reduction.
- Buoyant Growth: Total tonne-miles increased by roughly 17% from 1.97 trillion in 2015 to a peak of 2.3 trillion in 2024.
- Sub-Segment Dominance: MR2 vessels consistently contribute the majority, accounting for around 85%-90% of the total MR tonne-miles.
- Commodity Focus: Clean petroleum products (CPP) represent the largest share at 74.6%, followed by vegetable oils at 9.5% and chemicals at 7.4%.
- 2025 Reduction: The current year-to-date figure of about 1.7 trillion reflects a 26% reduction from the prior year.
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Source: Breakwave Advisors
