This week’s analysis of the global bunker market shows a moderate downward adjustment in fuel indices, shifts in the Scrubber Spread, continued volatility in the European gas market, and a slowdown in new orders for alternative-fueled vessels.
Global Bunker Index Dynamics
All three global bunker indices experienced a moderate decline following the 41st week, though early signs of an upward correction were visible.
- 380 HSFO: Declined by USD 3.38, settling at USD 450.25/MT.
- VLSFO: Fell by USD 2.47, moving to USD 522.11/MT.
- MGO: Registered the sharpest decline of USD 8.03, dropping to USD 773.29/MT.
Scrubber Spread Analysis
The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS) for 380 HSFO/VLSFO showed mixed results but remained well below the breakeven point.
- Global SS Spread: Increased slightly by USD 0.91 to USD 71.86, remaining firmly below the USD 100.00 psychological mark (SS Breakeven).
- Rotterdam: Continued its downward trend, falling by USD 11.00 to USD 35.00, the lowest value since May 8, 2025.
- Singapore: Widened by USD 3.00, reaching USD 73.00.
- Profitability Outlook: The low SS Spread values continue to favor the profitability of conventional VLSFO compared to the HSFO plus scrubber combination, with significant shifts considered unlikely in the near term.
European Gas Market and LNG Bunkering
The European gas market remains volatile, influencing the price of LNG bunker fuel.
- European Gas Storage: As of October 7, regional gas storage was 82.88% full, a slight increase of 0.29% from the previous week, but still below 2024 levels.
- TTF Benchmark: The European TTF gas benchmark resumed an upward trajectory, gaining €1.835/MWh to reach €33.346/MWh, with prices remaining above 2024 benchmarks.
- LNG Bunker Price: The price of LNG as a bunker fuel at the port of Sines, Portugal, declined by USD 10.00 to USD 768/MT.
- Fuel Differential: The price differential between LNG and conventional fuel shifted in favor of conventional fuel by USD 32/MT, a change from the USD 11/MT advantage held by LNG a week earlier.
MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)
The MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI) indicated a slight shift toward overvaluation across major bunkering hubs.
- 380 HSFO: Fujairah and Houston moved into the overvalued zone. Rotterdam and Singapore remained undervalued, though their discounts narrowed.
- VLSFO: Houston was the only port in the overvalued zone. Rotterdam, Singapore, and Fujairah maintained their positions in the undervalued zone, with weekly discounts widening in all three.
- MGO LS: Singapore reached full 100% correlation between market price and the digital benchmark. The remaining ports stayed undervalued, with Houston nearing full correlation.
- Overall Trend: The balance between overvalued and undervalued ports shifted slightly toward overvaluation, a trend that is expected to continue next week.
Alternative Fuel Vessel Orders
New orders for alternative-fueled vessels slowed down in the third quarter of 2025 following strong growth in the first half of the year.
- Order Slowdown: Only 14 new orders were placed in September (12 LNG carriers and 2 LPG carriers), with no orders recorded in August.
- Year-to-Date Contraction: Total orders from January to September amounted to 192 vessels, representing a 48% decline compared to the same period in 2024.
- Causative Factors: The contraction is attributed to a broader weakening of the newbuilding market, rising contract values, and regulatory uncertainty surrounding the IMO’s Framework for Carbon Neutrality and life-cycle assessments.
- Fuel Choices: LNG continues to dominate with 121 vessels ordered, followed by Methanol (43), LPG (19), and a small number of Ammonia (5) and Hydrogen (4) vessels.
- Driving Segment: Container ships remain the primary driver, accounting for 63% of all alternative-fuel vessel orders in 2025.
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Source: MABUX on LinkedIn
