- West Africa–Far East Route Hits 30-Month High in September.
- Asian Stockpiling and Trade Shifts Support Persian Gulf Routes.
- Market Outlook Mixed Amid Potential Tonnage Crunch and Port Fees.
The West of Suez Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) market experienced a remarkable surge, hitting multi-year highs as Q3 2025 came to a close. This upswing was fueled by the easing of OPEC+ production cuts, robust demand in the Atlantic Basin, and a limited influx of new vessels. Rates for the 260,000 mt West Africa–Far East route saw a significant jump, averaging $18.46/mt in July, $20.84/mt in August, and peaking at a 30-month high of $30.94/mt in September. While volumes from West Africa remained consistent, a tighter availability of ships and a more positive outlook in nearby loading areas played a key role in driving rates up, reports S&P Global.
Rising Asian Demand and Trade Shifts
Over in the East, China’s stockpiling efforts and discounts on Saudi crude grades have spurred activity along the Persian Gulf–China route. At the same time, Indian charterers, feeling the pinch from U.S. trade tariffs, have reduced their Russian imports and turned to the Persian Gulf for more supplies to keep their refineries running smoothly. In the Americas, increased demand from Brazil and the U.S. Gulf has further absorbed available tonnage, making it tougher to find vessels for West African shipments.
Market Outlook and Rate Expectations
Looking ahead, experts suggest that while demand may not see a significant uptick, rates could remain buoyed by a potential shortage of vessels due to China’s new port fee policy aimed at U.S.-affiliated ships, which kicks in on October 14.
“The next month should be OK rates-wise, but I think November onwards will be quiet — we won’t see too much of an increase in cargo movement,” said an Asia-based VLCC broker. “The floor across the board is going to be higher as we move into next year,” added a London-based broker. “But the peaks and troughs we see will also be greater.”
Newbuild Deliveries May Pressure Rates
A longer order book from 2026 onward, compared with the limited 2025 deliveries, could weigh on rates in the medium term. “In 2026, there will be deliveries in the second half, and in 2027 I think the number of newbuilds will be too much [for inquiry levels],” said the Asia-based broker. “There are a handful more newbuilds on the way… Charterers are still going to use 2010 builds as we move to next year, and Indian charterers especially will definitely be willing to use 15–16-year-old tonnage,” noted the London-based broker.
Suezmax Market Climbs to Multi-Year Highs
In the West of Suez, the Suezmax segment saw a boost in Q3 2025, driven by strong demand from the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) and inquiries from West Africa. After averaging $14.34 per metric ton in July for the 130,000 metric ton WAF–UK/Continent route, rates surged to $19.09 in August and further climbed to $19.49 in September, marking a 20-month peak. Meanwhile, in the Black Sea, the 135,000 metric ton CPC–Med route reached a remarkable 29-month high of $16.58 per metric ton in September.
Production Growth Supports Black Sea Rates
Suezmax owners have reaped the benefits of increased CPC blend production, thanks to Chevron’s expansion of the Tengiz oil field in early 2025. In September alone, a record 54 Suezmax cargoes were loaded from the CPC terminal, more than doubling the monthly average from 2024.
Q4 Outlook: Stable to Moderately Bullish
Shipbroking sources expect Q4 2025 to remain steady to moderately bullish. “Q4 is usually firm, but Suezmaxes are already quite high, so if they rise it’ll be pretty spectacular — I don’t think they’ll go up by too much,” said a London-based broker.
“It’s looking positive overall… I think they could keep steady — not sure how much higher they could go,” a Europe-based broker added. “We’re at decent levels already, but you’ve got to expect things will go up as the weather gets worse,” said another Europe-based broker.
Larger Ships Outperform Aframaxes
According to brokers, Suezmaxes and VLCCs are currently the top-performing segments in the dirty tanker market, while Aframax earnings have softened. “It’s a top-down market now… this year Afras have been weaker owing to production increases in areas which favour the larger ships,” said a London-based broker.
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Source: S&P Global
