- Rising Production and Ukrainian Strikes Push More Crude to Exports.
- 35 Tankers Load 27.2 Million Barrels in Latest Week.
- Export Value Hits One-Year High at $1.49 Billion Weekly.
In the last four weeks, Russia’s seaborne crude shipments have surged to a 28-month high, thanks to rising production and Ukrainian attacks on refineries that are pushing more crude to export terminals. According to vessel-tracking data from Bloomberg, the average shipments from Russia’s ports hit 3.74 million barrels a day as of October 12, marking the highest level since June 2023. This four-week average gives us a clearer view of the trends compared to the more erratic weekly figures, reports gCaptain.
Rising Production and Export Diversions
Moscow has been steadily ramping up crude production as part of a long-term OPEC+ initiative aimed at getting more supplies back into the market. Since March, Russia’s production target has increased by over 500,000 barrels a day. Additionally, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries have played a role in boosting exports.
There have been at least 28 attacks since early August, compared to just 21 in the first seven months of the year. Crude that can’t be processed is being redirected for export through Russia’s Baltic and Black Sea ports. In the latest four-week period, shipments from Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiysk averaged 2.3 million barrels a day. This situation is leaving little room at the terminals, especially with winter on the horizon, which could complicate loading operations.
Weekly Tanker Shipments
During the week ending October 12, 35 tankers loaded a total of 27.2 million barrels of Russian crude, which is almost the same as the 27.17 million barrels loaded the previous week with the same number of ships. Daily shipments averaged 3.89 million barrels a day, the highest in five weeks. There were also two cargoes of Kazakhstan’s Kebco grade shipped that week, one from Ust-Luga and the other from Novorossiysk. While exports from Russia’s Black Sea and Arctic ports dipped, increases from Baltic and Pacific ports helped balance out those declines.
Trends in Export Values
Over the past four weeks, the gross value of Russian crude exports has seen a nice bump, climbing about $60 million to hit a one-year peak of $1.49 billion per week as of October 12. The export prices for Urals crude from the Baltic and Black Sea have held steady at $54.78 and $55.08 per barrel, respectively. Meanwhile, the Pacific ESPO grade dipped by $0.40 to $62.02 a barrel, but prices in India ticked up a bit to $65.61 a barrel, according to Argus Media.
On average, the export value was around $1.53 billion for the week leading up to October 12, showing only slight fluctuations from the previous week. Baltic Urals cargoes dropped by $0.40 to $53.87 per barrel, Black Sea shipments fell by $0.20 to $54.35, and the Pacific ESPO saw a decrease of $0.70 to $60.92 per barrel.
Crude Flows to Asia
Shipments to Russia’s Asian clients, including those without a specified final destination, increased to 3.4 million barrels a day in the four weeks leading up to October 12, up from 3.19 million barrels a day in the previous period, marking the highest level since June 2023.
Although crude flows to China and India seem to be on the decline—1.1 million barrels a day to China and 810,000 barrels a day to India—nearly 1.5 million barrels a day are still on vessels without a confirmed destination. About 1.2 million barrels a day are on ships leaving from western ports, with destinations listed as Port Said or the Suez Canal, while 270,000 barrels a day are on Pacific tankers lacking a clear delivery point.
Flows to Other Destinations
Shipments to Turkey dipped slightly to 310,000 barrels a day from 340,000 barrels a day in the previous period, while shipments to Syria remained stable at around 35,000 barrels a day.
Did you subscribe to our daily Newsletter?
It’s Free Click here to Subscribe!
Source: gCaptain
