After enduring a turbulent 2024 and 2025 marked by trade wars and geopolitical conflicts, global shippers are finally seeing positive signs for 2026. According to Xeneta’s 2026 Ocean Outlook, the coming year could bring new opportunities to reimagine freight procurement, strengthen supply chain resilience, and take advantage of falling freight rates. With an expected 3% rise in global shipping demand and a 3.6% increase in fleet capacity, market dynamics are turning in favor of shippers.
Global Trade Patterns and Market Outlook
The ocean shipping market is expected to stabilize in 2026, though challenges will persist. Global container demand is forecast to grow by 3%, while an oversupply of new vessels will put downward pressure on rates.
US imports and exports are projected to remain weak due to ongoing tariff disputes, while China’s exports are likely to continue rising by around 5.8%, especially to markets outside North America. The “China +1” strategy, aimed at diversifying supply chains into countries like India and Vietnam, may face obstacles due to tariff pressures.
Overall, global freight rates are expected to fall spot rates by 25% and long-term rates by 10%, moving closer to pre-pandemic levels.
Record Fleet Expansion and Red Sea Impact
The record orderbook for containerships over 10 million TEU (about 1,000 ships) signals massive fleet expansion. Major players like MSC (22% of new capacity) and OCEAN Alliance partners (34%) will dominate future capacity.
The Red Sea conflict continues to shape shipping routes, with limited return traffic despite falling rates. While some carriers like CMA CGM are cautiously resuming operations, most are waiting for regional stability. The Suez Canal Authority’s 15% rebate on transit fees is unlikely to be enough to lure large-scale returns. However, these diversions continue to protect carriers from rate collapse by adding extra transport work.
The year 2026 marks a new phase for global shipping one that offers hope for shippers after two years of volatility. Falling rates, increased vessel supply, and a stabilizing market present an opportunity to negotiate better contracts and enhance supply chain resilience. Yet, challenges like tariff wars and regional conflicts remain. To succeed, shippers must stay informed, leverage data for smarter decision-making, and negotiate strategically to secure both affordability and reliability in their freight operations.
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Source: SAFETY4SEA
