As we move into Week 46 of 2025, the container shipping market is experiencing notable shifts, with a decrease in freight rates, ongoing port congestion, and a rising order book. Here’s a look at the key trends shaping the market:
Port Congestion and Idle Capacity
Port congestion remains a significant issue, with 2.74 million TEU tied up in global ports, representing 8.3% of the fleet. This continues to affect vessel schedules and delays, although certain regions show signs of improvement. Port congestion data, tracked globally, provides an ongoing challenge, especially as 51 ships are currently idled, accounting for 0.4% of the global fleet, with 136,496 TEU tied up.
Freight Rates
Freight rates have continued their downward trajectory, with the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) dipping to 1,451 in Week 46. This represents a 2.9% drop week-on-week and a staggering 35.5% decrease year-on-year. The drop in freight rates is largely attributed to the weakening demand and falling capacity utilization on major trade lanes, notably in the Transpacific region. However, Asia-Europe rates remain somewhat resilient, propped up by ongoing port congestion in Europe, which has been keeping supply growth in check.
Global Ship Deliveries and Fleet Adjustments
The market saw the delivery of 21 ships totaling 181,505 TEU in the past 30 days, signaling ongoing fleet expansion despite the market’s fluctuations. Conversely, only 1 ship (342 TEU) was deleted, reflecting the industry’s focus on retaining capacity as demand continues to rebound slowly.
Ship Orders and Industry Expansion
A key trend for the week is the surge in new orders, lifting the order book to a new post-GFC high of 34%. Shipbuilders are under pressure as 4.4 million TEU of deliveries are expected by 2028, which may further raise over-supply risks. The recent series of ship orders suggests optimism in certain segments of the market, though concerns remain over the ability to manage the increase in fleet capacity and its impact on rates and profitability.
Liner Earnings Performance
The earnings landscape has been mixed. Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk continue to lag behind their industry peers, with both carriers seeing lower EBIT margins. High operating costs, particularly in maintaining the Gemini Cooperation’s superior schedule reliability, have hindered their ability to command freight rate premiums. Meanwhile, Asian carriers have outperformed their European counterparts, retaining stronger EBIT margin gaps despite weaker demand conditions in long-haul routes.
Looking Ahead
The outlook for the remainder of the year suggests that, while intra-Asia trade remains more resilient, global shipping faces an uphill battle with freight rate instability and port congestion still impacting operations. As the industry continues to adjust to the new order book and the capacity challenges that come with it, the need for strategic fleet management and optimization of vessel deployment will be more important than ever.
The shift in EBIT margins and performance will likely remain a key area of focus for the coming weeks, as carriers adjust to the new dynamics in freight demand and cost structures.
Did you subscribe to our daily Newsletter?
It’s Free — Click here to Subscribe!
Source: LINERLYTICA
