Marine Bunker Exchange reports that global bunker trends remained uneven through Week 47, with fuel indices moving in different directions and offering no clear market trajectory. The week closed with shifting price ranges, widening fuel spreads, and a bunker market still searching for a stable pattern.
Bunker Index Movements Remain Fragmented
Across the week, the 380 HSFO index declined below the 430 USD/MT threshold, while VLSFO and MGO LS posted only marginal increases. Market watchers noted that despite small day-to-day adjustments, bunker prices continue to lack a unified direction. That uncertainty shaped much of the global sentiment during the week.
Scrubber Spread Expands Toward the Key $100 Threshold
The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread continued to climb, pushing past the 80-dollar mark and moving closer to the psychological $100 level.
Major hubs followed this trend with their own increases. Rotterdam strengthened its spread, Singapore edged toward SS breakeven, and weekly averages rose across the board.
If these movements continue, the widening gap could shift the short-term profitability balance in favor of the HSFO-plus-scrubber strategy over standard VLSFO.
Asia’s LNG Imports Dip While Europe Continues to Add Volume
Recent LNG data shows diverging regional trends. Asia recorded a slight increase in October but remained well below the levels seen a year earlier. This decline has been consistent, driven largely by reduced demand from major buyers in the region.
Europe, by contrast, continued to expand its LNG intake. Imports increased compared with last year, even as policymakers talk about reducing long-term gas reliance. Industry analysts also raised concerns about Europe’s growing dependence on a single dominant LNG supplier, following strong inflows during the first half of the year.
European Gas Storage Holds Firm as Prices Tick Up
As of mid-November, Europe’s storage facilities remained above 80% capacity. Withdrawal rates slightly outpaced injections, though levels remain higher than the start of the year. The European gas benchmark posted a modest increase, reflecting stable regional demand and steady supply conditions.
LNG Bunker Prices Rise While MGO Advantage Narrows
At the Port of Sines, LNG bunker prices rose week-on-week, although the price gap between LNG and MGO LS narrowed. LNG retained its cost advantage, but the margin tightened as MGO LS firmed during the same period.
Undervaluation Dominates the Major Bunker Hubs
The MABUX Market Differential Index showed a clear pattern across all major ports, with the key hubs—Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston—moving into full undervaluation across all three fuel grades.
Some ports even moved close to full alignment between market prices and benchmark digital levels, indicating a possible shift in pricing equilibrium.
This broad undervaluation suggests that bunker buyers may find competitive pricing conditions in the immediate term, though market volatility remains a factor.
IEA Updates Show a Growing Oil Market Surplus
The latest international energy outlook points toward a larger global oil surplus in 2025 than previously forecast. Demand expectations for both 2025 and 2026 nudged slightly higher, but supply growth is projected to outpace it over the next two years.
Production gains from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ producers are expected to continue. With supply rising faster than demand, the projected surplus for 2025 has been revised upward, setting the tone for a market that may remain oversupplied unless production plans change.
Outlook for Next Week
The global bunker market has yet to establish a lasting trend. With price indices moving in different directions, Week 48 is expected to bring continued fluctuations rather than a clear upward or downward breakout. Market signals point to another week of mixed conditions.
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Source: Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)
