Drewry’s latest industry insight raises an important question for container shipping: can recurrent shipping delays be fully eliminated? The spotlight falls on the ambition of the Gemini Cooperation to lift schedule reliability above 80%, a benchmark that has triggered both interest and caution among supply-chain stakeholders.
In a recent investor presentation, one major carrier noted that conversations have begun about charging a premium for consistent on-time arrivals, while stressing that any such premium would require a credible record of reliability. Yet, the broader operational environment continues to present significant challenges.
For example, in October, average ship waiting times at European ports reached 1.9 days, underlining the difficulties carriers face in meeting planned schedules. Data showed that waiting times at some major European ports exceeded those at comparable ports in Asia, highlighting residual pressure within the network.
Delays stem from a variety of factors, many beyond the control of carriers or terminals: port congestion, strikes, adverse weather, infrastructure limitations, maritime accidents, schedule roll-overs, or unexpected service changes. Such disruptions can ripple through the network, affecting vessel rotations and cargo flows.
Using Drewry’s combined metrics — port congestion (pre-berth waiting times) and schedule reliability (ships arriving within 24 hours of their planned schedule) — the picture becomes clearer. On the Asia–Europe corridor, reliability had been improving over several months before dropping in October to 39%. Market sources indicate that feeder services remain particularly vulnerable to European port delays, given their tighter port calls and shorter turnaround margins.
Drewry points out that stronger schedule reliability benefits all stakeholders — ports, shippers, forwarders — by reducing inefficiencies like demurrage fees, terminal congestion, and last-minute adjustments in landside logistics. On the Asia–Europe trade lane, the Gemini alliance continues to show relatively higher on-time performance and fewer cancelled sailings compared with other alliances.
Still, European main-port networks are heavily utilized, with limited spare capacity. In such an environment, even a minor disruption at one port can trigger a domino effect — further delays, backlog at terminals, and shortage of next-available berths — complicating logistics for all involved.
Drewry’s consultants are engaging with shippers on both short- and long-term tactics to navigate recurring disruptions. That said, the firm acknowledges that shipping delays, even if reduced, are unlikely to vanish completely given the structural complexity of global maritime logistics.
Drewry will continue monitoring key indicators — cancelled sailings, port congestion, dwell times, schedule reliability — to provide stakeholders with a timely and detailed understanding of market dynamics and performance trends across major trade routes.
Did you subscribe to our daily Newsletter?
It’s Free — Click here to Subscribe!
Source: Drewry
