- US East Coast Sees 35% Capacity Surge as Spot Rates Collapse Over 50%.
- US West Coast Capacity Flat but Rates Slide Amid Falling Demand.
- Geopolitics Drive Bigger Capacity Push Into the East Coast Over the West Coast.
The outlook for 2026 paints a picture where overcapacity is the main theme in global container shipping. With demand projected to rise by 3% while fleet growth is at 3.6%, carriers are going to feel the squeeze. They’re faced with a tough choice: Either support rates by managing capacity or protect and possibly expand their market share by keeping capacity high. In practice, carriers are taking different approaches across various trades, which makes things a bit more unpredictable for shippers, reports Xeneta.
Far East–US: Market Share Takes the Lead
US East Coast: Capacity Rises, Rates Fall
- Capacity offered: up 35% year-on-year to 183,000 TEU
- Demand: down 9% in September
- Spot rates: down 53% to USD 2,684/FEU
US West Coast: Similar Tactics, Smaller Capacity Change
- Capacity offered for November: 324,000 TEU, nearly unchanged at -2% YoY
- Demand: down 9% from August to September
- Spot rates: down 55% YoY, dropping 32% since November 1
Blank sailings are also at their lowest since mid-2024, which reinforces the aggressive stance of carriers.
East Coast vs West Coast: Why Capacity Moves Differently
The capacity difference—+35% on the East Coast compared to -2% on the West Coast—can be attributed to:
- Recovery from the 2024 port strikes, which created a lower baseline on the West Coast
- Geopolitical factors: 51% of West Coast imports come from China, while only 24% come to the East Coast
With stronger demand on the East Coast, carriers feel more confident pushing extra capacity there.
Far East–Europe: Prioritising Rates Over Market Share
In the Far East–North Europe trade, carriers are focusing on keeping rates stable.
- Capacity offered: decreased from 320,600 TEU (the peak in September) to 290,100 TEU
- Spot rates: up 40% since October 14 to USD 2,350/FEU
Mediterranean Breaks the Trend
Even though capacity has hit 739,000 TEU (the highest since July), spot rates are still up by 37%. This indicates a stronger underlying demand, allowing carriers to enjoy both high utilisation and better
Transatlantic: The Safety Valve for Capacity
The Transatlantic trade route between Northern Europe and the US East Coast continues to be a vital asset for shipping. Here’s a quick look at the current situation:
- Demand levels have remained steady since 2020.
- The available capacity has surged by over 50% since January 2020.
Carriers are redirecting their vessels to this route when:
- There’s a global overcapacity (like we’re seeing now) – this helps maintain rates on the main fronthaul routes.
- Supply chains become tighter – capacity is then shifted to more lucrative trades.
This trend makes the Transatlantic route a crucial barometer for understanding carrier behaviour on a global scale.
What This Means for 2026 Contracting
There are indications that carriers are strategically managing capacity, particularly on European routes, during the tender season to keep rates high. We might see a shift in 2026, with tighter capacity for US-bound trades as their tender season kicks off. As shippers gear up for negotiations in 2026, they should:
- Keep an eye on carrier strategies across all major trades, even those they don’t typically use.
- Grasp how global redeployments can affect local pricing.
- Get ready for a year where overcapacity could work in their favour, but only if they negotiate with intention.
Carriers will be determined to safeguard their rates and volumes. Shippers who aren’t prepared might end up paying more in their 2026 freight contracts.
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Source: Xeneta
