- The Red Sea is the only direct route into the Suez Canal, and recent fighting pushed most owners to sail around the Cape, adding 10–14 days and high extra costs.
- NYK’s president, Takaya Soga, says the truce is fragile and his firm will wait for a durable settlement before returning.
- Other carriers and the Suez Canal Authority want traffic back soon, discounts and commercial logic may bring ships home once risk eases.
Ancient story, modern stakes
Roughly three and a half thousand years ago, scripture tells us the Red Sea opened to let the Israelites escape and closed on the pursuing army. That image still matters because it reminds us that the Middle East has long been a place where conflict, refugees and disrupted shipping collide. Today, the Red Sea is not a miracle route but a crucial chokepoint, the only passage to the Suez Canal, and every container voyage through it matters for global trade.
Why owners fled and what it costs
Since Houthi attacks on merchant ships began in November 2023, many owners judged the risk too high and rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope. That choice adds 10–14 days to each voyage and pushes operating costs sharply higher, so the route’s closure has real economic pain for shippers and charterers alike.
NYK’s caution: stability first
According to Lloyd’s List, Takaya Soga, president of NYK, has taken a firm line: the current truce is fragile, and NYK will not resume Red Sea transits until Israel, Hamas and Iran reach a durable settlement. That cautious stance is reflected in insurance markets — war risk premiums for the Red Sea have not dropped meaningfully, showing underwriters remain sceptical about security improvements.
Some carriers are more willing to test the waters
Not every big operator shares NYK’s strict timetable. Names such as Maersk, CMA CGM and Zim show more readiness to consider returning, and that sentiment is encouraged by the Suez Canal Authority. The SCA has lost large revenues during the disruption and is offering significant fee discounts to lure transits back. But claims that Maersk will immediately resume full canal use may be premature — the company says it will “take steps” to normalise transits over time rather than commit to an instant comeback.
Business logic vs perfect peace
Admiral Ossama Rabiee of the SCA is blunt: the Suez Canal is the shortest, fastest link between east and west and the most efficient route for global supply chains. For many shipowners, the decision to return will be practical, not political. They will accept a lower threshold than NYK’s call for a durable settlement — a workable reduction in danger rather than complete political resolution and start using the canal once the perceived risk becomes acceptable for commercial operations.
A cautious return is likely
History and scripture warn that risks can reappear quickly. But barring an unlikely repeat of biblical intervention, commercial pressure and the SCA’s incentives mean ships will come back when uncertainty falls enough for insurers, charterers and owners to feel comfortable. That return may be gradual and conditional, not immediate, but it is likely once the balance tilts in favour of lower measured risk and clear commercial gain.
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Source: Lloyd’s List
