- Rates increase for both Ukrainian and Russian Black Sea port calls.
- Underwriters reassess intent, capability and strike ranges.
- Turkey warns parties after first attacks on non-military vessels in international waters.
The cost of moving goods through the Black Sea saw a rise on Monday after Ukrainian naval drones targeted two tankers that were on their way to a Russian port. Industry insiders reported that these attacks sparked new worries about escalating tensions, leading underwriters to hike up war risk premiums. The Black Sea is a vital route for grain, crude oil, and refined products, flanked by NATO member countries as well as Russia and Ukraine, reports Reuters.
War Risk Premiums on the Rise
Shipping and insurance experts noted that war risk rates for seven-day trips to Ukrainian ports climbed from 0.4% to 0.5% over the past week. Meanwhile, premiums for Russian Black Sea ports, which typically carry a higher rate, jumped to between 0.65% and 0.8%, up from around 0.6% last week.
Details on the Tanker Strikes
An official from the Security Service of Ukraine revealed that the two tankers, both under Western sanctions, were struck by naval drones while they were empty and making their way to Novorossiysk, Russia’s key oil export terminal on the Black Sea. These incidents are part of Ukraine’s strategy to undermine Russia’s oil export revenues and are influencing how underwriters assess operational risks.
Underwriters Reassess Escalation Risk
Munro Anderson, head of operations at marine war-risk specialist Vessel Protect, said the new pattern of attacks was influencing market sentiment: “Rates have firmed in line with that view. For Russian port calls, underwriters are pricing in a broader range of possible strike locations and a higher likelihood of repetition,” he said.
He added: “As Ukrainian activity increases, the probability of reciprocal Russian action grows. That creates a more even risk gradient across both trades than we have seen in some time.”
Turkey Issues a Warning Following the Attacks
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan condemned the escalation, declaring that attacks on commercial vessels in the Black Sea are unacceptable, and he issued a warning to all parties involved.
Naval analyst and former deputy chief of staff of the Ukrainian navy, Andrii Ryzhenko, pointed out that these incidents mark the first time non-military, non-Russian-flagged ships have been involved in international waters. He added that Russia is unlikely to target ships heading to Ukraine within the territorial waters of Turkey, Bulgaria, or Romania, as that would be seen as an attack on NATO territory. Ryzhenko added: “They’re (Russia) attacking (vessels) all of the time, at least in Ukrainian territorial waters and using different types of weapons.”
Senegal Port Confirms Damage, but Cause Not Yet Disclosed
A spokesperson for Senegal’s Dakar Port Authority said the ship was stable and under control, confirming “a serious incident in the engine room caused a major water ingress”, and added that the precise cause would be disclosed once investigations conclude.
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Source: Reuters
