Breakwave Advisors reports in its latest weekly outlook that the tanker market is entering December with steady fundamentals, even as short-term trends shift. Key themes such as maritime markets, tanker freight rates, and shipping fundamentals continue to guide sentiment across the sector.
VLCC Momentum Cools but Fundamentals Stay Firm
The VLCC market softened as November came to a close. Early strength in the Arabian Gulf slowed when the position list widened, and enquiries eased. Charterers gained leverage, and rates drifted lower, though the drop was not sharp.
West Africa moved in a similar pattern. Players waited for a new enquiry before setting fresh price levels. Despite this pause, core drivers remain strong. Floating storage stays elevated. Atlantic-to-Asia crude flows remain healthy. Long-haul tonne-mile demand from OPEC+ continues to support earnings.
The key question is whether this slowdown is a brief pause or the first step in a downward phase. A major geopolitical shift could alter long-haul flows, but such an event appears unlikely for now.
OPEC+ Takes a Cautious Position for 2026
OPEC+ has chosen to hold production steady through the first quarter of 2026. The group aims to avoid adding to a possible oversupply while demand signals remain uneven. It also approved a new mechanism to review member production capacity next year. This review will guide baseline quotas for 2027.
This cautious stance follows several months of output increases. At the same time, global supply growth is expected to outpace demand in the coming year. Softer oil prices and lower volatility already reflect this imbalance.
A Constructive Long-Term Outlook
The tanker market appears to be emerging from a long period of uneven rates. A historically low orderbook limits new vessel supply. Shifting trade patterns continue to reshape long-haul activity. Geopolitical uncertainty provides additional support for spot-rate volatility.
These elements together create a favorable setup for medium- and long-term freight strength.
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Source: Breakwave Advisors
