The dry bulk market continues to show mixed movements across segments as the industry approaches the final weeks of the year. While the Capesize market remains firm with strong enquiry and tight tonnage, both the Panamax and Supramax sectors are experiencing a softening trend driven by growing vessel supply and uneven cargo demand. Here is a detailed breakdown of the current segment conditions and rate trends.
Capesize Market Remains Strong Amid Tight Tonnage
The Capesize sector continues to see steady enquiry, especially from miners and operators fixing mid to late December cargoes. Demand remains healthy across the Pacific, though volumes from East Australia have slightly dipped compared to last week.
On the Brazil and West Africa C3 routes, attention is moving toward late-December and early-January cargoes. Ballasting tonnage remains extremely tight for December, supporting stronger rates, while availability improves only slightly into early January. Spot tonnage in the Far East is also limited, further strengthening the segment’s position.
Rates show this firmness, with the Pacific RV rising to $40,290, and the TCE Cont/Far East reaching $70,611.
Panamax and Supramax Segments Enter Correction Phase
Panamax Weakens Despite Support from Capesize Cargo Splits
Panamax markets have shifted into correction mode this week. Increasing vessel supply across both basins has shifted leverage back to charterers.
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NOPAC exports remain slow,
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Atlantic activity subdued, especially with a quiet US Gulf market, and
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Tonnage lists are growing across basins.
A positive influence is coming from the surging Capesize market, which is generating additional Panamax demand through cargo splits, offering temporary support. The only Pacific bright spot remains Aussie coal, where lack of immediate vessels is forcing operators to pay premiums.
Despite the current dip, indicators suggest this downturn may be temporary, with coal futures and copper demand pointing toward a Q1 rebound.
Supramax Softens in the Atlantic, Steadier in Asia
Supramax conditions softened further in both North and South Atlantic regions due to limited cargo enquiry.
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The Continent–Mediterranean region remains balanced,
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The Indian Ocean and Asia show firmer sentiment supported by iron ore cargoes, and
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Handysize markets are more positive due to tight tonnage in the US Gulf and South Atlantic.
Activity in Asia remains muted as players adopt a wait-and-see approach, though a year-end rush is expected as charterers push to complete December requirements.
As the dry bulk market closes in on the final weeks of the year, Capesize vessels continue to lead with rising rates and strong enquiry due to tight tonnage availability. In contrast, the Panamax and Supramax markets are experiencing a correction phase driven by oversupply and uneven cargo flows, though pockets of strength remain in specific regions. With seasonal demand and year-end chartering activity set to increase, market sentiment may shift again as the industry enters January with expectations of renewed momentum across key segments.
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Source: Fearnleys
