According to Drewry Maritime Research, the planned expansion of the Dangote refinery to 1.4 mbpd by 2028 is poised to reshape refined product movements across the Atlantic basin. The facility’s next phase will double current output and shift traditional supply routes at a time when Europe and the United States continue to trim refinery runs.
Capacity Growth That Repositions West Africa
The refinery aims to scale from 650,000 bpd to 1.4 mbpd, and Drewry notes that the project is expected to progress without major delays. Financial strength, operational experience gained from commissioning the world’s largest single-train refinery, and a planned 2026 public listing support this outlook.
With Phase 2 maintaining a similar yield structure, Nigeria would see its refined product surplus double. As a result, the refinery will become a major export hub just as Atlantic supply centres weaken.
Europe’s Shrinking Refinery Runs Create New Openings
Europe faces declining refinery throughput due to plant closures. This widens its diesel deficit and reduces gasoline and middle-distillate availability. At the same time, lower US refinery activity limits Transatlantic diesel supply. Consequently, Drewry highlights that Europe will increasingly look toward West Africa for replacement barrels.
Gasoline Flows: A Shift That Reduces Tonne-Miles
West Africa remains Europe’s largest gasoline destination today. When the expanded refinery reaches full capacity, it could replace Europe as the main supplier to neighbouring West African markets. The shift shortens voyages and moves trade from long-haul LR routes to intra-regional MR movements. This would reduce tonne-mile demand and weaken one of Europe’s most important gasoline export outlets.
North Africa may also adjust its sourcing. If West African supply becomes more competitive, buyers could increasingly turn to Nigeria. Unlike the West African shift, this would replace short intra-Mediterranean routes with longer West Africa–North Africa voyages, supporting LR tonne-mile utilisation.
Diesel: A New Supplier for Europe
Drewry highlights that diesel flows will hinge on the refinery’s ability to produce Euro-compliant low-sulphur grades. If Phase 2 delivers on that requirement, Nigeria could structurally reshape Atlantic diesel movements.
Europe’s diesel deficit is expanding as closures accelerate, while demand declines more slowly. Recently, Europe leaned heavily on US barrels rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope. With US refinery runs softening, reliance on Middle Eastern and Asian supply grows. These longer hauls increase transport cost and add tonne miles.
Nigeria sits closer to Europe than both the Middle East and the United States. As production grows, its diesel could replace much of the Transatlantic volume, trimming US-to-Europe MR employment and shifting flows toward long-haul LR shipments from West Africa. This represents a major reversal for a region that long depended on European refined fuels.
A Mixed Outcome for Product Tankers
Drewry outlines two contrasting impacts:
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Lower tonne-miles: European gasoline flows to West Africa fall and move to shorter MR trades.
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Higher tonne-miles: West African gasoline to North Africa and diesel to Europe strengthen LR utilisation.
Ultimately, the refinery’s 1.4 mbpd expansion will reposition Nigeria in global product markets and reshape Atlantic basin tanker employment patterns.
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Source: Drewry
