According to the latest Market Intelligence data, US seaborne imports posted only a modest decline in November 2025, revealing how tariff differentials continue to reshape sourcing strategies and trade flows heading into 2026.
US Imports Ease Slightly, but Seasonal Trends Shift
US seaborne containerized imports fell 3.2% year over year, marking a third straight monthly decline. However, the downturn was milder than expected. Automotive parts shipments rose 3.9%, signalling that Section 232 tariffs have become an accepted operational cost, especially for long-established supply chains.
Seasonal behaviour also deviated from historical norms. Imports in November increased 0.7% month-over-month on a days-adjusted basis, mirroring last year’s 0.5% gain but dramatically softer than the 3.8% average rise recorded between 2015 and 2024. With government trade data reporting continuing to lag due to federal shutdown disruptions, bill-of-lading records remain a critical real-time indicator of physical trade flows.
Tariffs Drive Diverging Import Performance by Region
Differential duty rates under the IEEPA program played a decisive role in the spread of performance across origin markets.
Mainland China Continues to Contract
Shipments from mainland China and Hong Kong declined 17.2% year over year, extending a full-year slide. The recent reduction of fentanyl-related IEEPA rates from 20% to 10% may ease the downturn, but China’s official export data shows a sharper contraction in value — 25.1% in October and 29% in November — suggesting exporters are cutting prices to defend market share.
ASEAN Emerges as the Clear Beneficiary
Imports from ASEAN countries surged 21.9% in November, reversing October’s modest growth. The region’s momentum reflects both tactical sourcing shifts and deeper long-term reshoring strategies as buyers diversify away from China while avoiding high US duty rates.
India’s Imports Decline Further
Shipments from India dropped 18.7%, a steeper fall than October’s 17.9% decline. Elevated 50% duty rates linked to the country’s purchases of Russian oil continue to weigh on performance, with no signs yet of a policy break-through.
Europe Posts Strong Rebound
Imports from the EU, EFTA and UK rose 10.8% year over year, accelerating from October’s 4.8% increase. Lower tariff rates — 15% for the EU and 10% for the UK — are helping European exporters remain competitive. Switzerland may also gain momentum following the reduction of its duty rate from 39% to 15%.
Tariff Structures Likely to Influence 2026 Trends
With tariff differentials proving decisive in November, upcoming adjustments — particularly exemptions for selected food categories — may shape early-2026 performance. Meanwhile, Central and South America could benefit further if policy shifts continue to favour regional diversification.
Market Watch Outlook
The overall picture suggests a slowdown rather than a collapse in US import demand. Yet the widening spread in performance by origin underscores how quickly sourcing patterns are adapting to tariff exposure, cost pressures and currency dynamics.
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Source: S&P Global
