- Asia–Europe container rates remain well above October lows despite growing overcapacity.
- Early pre-Lunar New Year demand is supporting recent GRI increases.
- Red Sea insurance risks continue to delay full route resumption.
- Transpacific rates remain volatile, with mixed performance across US coasts.
Despite growing ocean freight overcapacity, Asia-Europe container rates have maintained recent GRI increases with Mediterranean rates holding at $3,342/FEU (after a 15% rise to start December) and North Europe prices stable at $2,449/FEU last week, both well above their mid-October lows.
Carriers and forwarders report an uptick in demand as shippers begin pre-Lunar New Year ordering early again this year with some speculating shippers are building inventory buffers in anticipation of disruptions from a coming Red Sea return.
Insurance considerations remain critical for Red Sea resumption, with experts suggesting insurers will need at least 60-90 days of quiet before considering a return. Current rates are still 54% below last December despite both Red Sea diversions and volume growth, highlighting capacity growth’s significant impact on rates.
Transpacific carriers continue struggling to sustain GRIs despite capacity reductions; West Coast rates retreated 6% to $1,963/FEU last week while East Coast prices rose 8% to $3,150/FEU but remain 15% below month-ago levels, though still above October lows.
Some US manufacturers are reportedly pausing imports hoping for a favorable Supreme Court IEEPA ruling and reduced tariffs; while the White House maintains it would quickly restore tariffs through other means, cost-of-living pressures has some speculating that the administration could potentially use a court loss as a tariff off-ramp.
S&P projects US ocean imports will fall 2% in 2026 following an NRF estimate of 1.4% decline in 2025.
Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index:
- Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) decreased 6% to $1,964/FEU.
- Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 8% to $3,150/FEU.
- Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) decreased 1% to $2,449/FEU.
- Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) decreased 1% to $3,342/FEU.
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Source: Ajot
