Russian Shadow Fleet Shifts Routes as Black Sea Turns Hostile

By
Mfame Editor
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17

  • Shadow Fleet Tankers Hug Turkish Coast After Drone Strikes.
  • Ukrainian Drone Attacks Force Russian Oil Tankers Off Open Sea Routes.
  • Black Sea Becomes High-Risk Zone for Russian Crude Shipments.

The Black Sea has turned into a risky zone for Russia’s covert fleet of oil tankers, especially after a spike in Ukrainian drone strikes in late November and December. Many vessels transporting Russian crude are now steering clear of their usual direct routes, opting instead for much longer paths that hug the coastlines of Georgia and Türkiye. In fact, some tankers have been spotted entering or operating close to Turkish territorial waters. Recent analysis from Windward reveals that at least six dark fleet tankers are sailing unusually close to Türkiye’s shores, supporting earlier reports that ships like Torx and Jumbo changed their routes right after the drone attacks began, reports Windward.

Tankers Seeking Coastal Shelter

Windward Maritime AI™ has identified the following vessels that are sticking close to the coast:

  1. BELOMOR – Last seen near Greece, heading for Port Said
  2. JUMBO – Located off the Turkish coast, marked “For Orders”
  3. VIREL – Operating near Turkish waters, also bound for Port Said
  4. TENDUA – Close to a Russian port, status “For Orders”
  5. VAYU 1 – Near a Russian port, status “For Orders”
  6. TORX – Last spotted near Egypt

All six tankers are flagged as high smuggling risks by Windward. Many are connected to shell companies registered in places like the Seychelles, Mauritius, and the Marshall Islands, which are often used to hide ownership in shadow fleet operations.

Longer Routes, Higher Costs

Typically, the shipping route from Novorossiysk to the Bosphorus goes straight across the Black Sea. The new coastal route adds about 350 nautical miles, which means the journey is nearly 70 per cent longer. This leads to increased fuel consumption, longer transit times, and more operational challenges. For those running the shadow fleet, the focus has shifted from efficiency to simply staying afloat.

The Precision of Ukrainian Drone Strikes is on the Rise

Ukrainian maritime drones are showing impressive advancements in their reach and coordination:

  1. November 28 – Two tankers were hit at the same time near the Turkish coast.
  2. November 29 – Another tanker was struck and managed to make its way to Tuzla under a different flag.
  3. December 2 – A tanker was attacked about 80 nautical miles off Türkiye.
  4. December 10 – A vessel was targeted south of Feodosia while it was cruising at full speed with its transponder turned off.

One ship later ran aground off Bulgaria, and another attack was confirmed to be a joint effort by Ukraine’s Security Service and Navy.

The Turkish Territorial Calculation

By navigating close to or even within Türkiye’s 12-nautical-mile territorial waters, operators of the shadow fleet seem to be gambling that Ukraine will refrain from launching strikes that might lead to diplomatic tensions. Moscow has already accused Kyiv of violating Turkish sovereignty, while Ankara has cautioned that these incidents pose significant risks to navigation, human safety, property, and the environment.

Even though Türkiye hasn’t imposed sanctions on Russia and continues to serve as a vital transit route, the presence of ageing, poorly insured tankers near its shores raises increasing environmental and security alarms.

A Growing Global Shadow Fleet

According to Windward, the global shadow fleet has now surpassed 1,900 vessels, making up about 10 per cent of the world’s tanker fleet. The EU has sanctioned nearly 600 ships, with more designations being added regularly.

These vessels often share some common characteristics:

  1. They are typically older, usually between 15 and 25 years.
  2. They fly flags of convenience with minimal oversight.
  3. Their ownership structures are often unclear.
  4. They have weak or nonexistent insurance coverage.

The environmental risks are already becoming apparent, as demonstrated by a significant oil spill in the Black Sea in December 2024 involving tankers from the shadow fleet.

Tactical Shift, Not a Long-Term Fix

The route changes represent a short-term adaptation rather than a lasting solution. Ukrainian authorities have indicated that drone operations will continue against vessels involved in transporting sanctioned Russian commodities.

For Russia’s shadow fleet, the Black Sea is no longer just a transit corridor. It has become a contested and increasingly unforgiving battlefield.

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Source: Windward