Within just one year, Russia’s Northern Sea Route (NSR) has transformed into a major transit corridor for sanctioned and poorly regulated vessels belonging to the country’s so-called “dark” or “shadow” fleet. From only a handful of such ships in 2024, the number surged to nearly 100 sanctioned vessels in 2025—almost one-third of all cargo ships operating on the route. These ships often lack proper insurance, sail under flags of convenience, disable tracking systems, and operate in one of the world’s most fragile marine environments, significantly raising the risk of accidents and environmental disasters in the Arctic.
Rapid Growth of Sanctioned and Unsafe Vessels on the NSR
By December 2025, at least 38 oil and oil-product tankers navigating the NSR were placed under international sanctions for violating oil price caps or being linked to sanctioned industrial projects. Many of these vessels are aging, with an average age of over 13 years, and more than half exceeding 15 years. Alarmingly, several tankers lack adequate ice-class certification, despite operating in harsh Arctic conditions.
Incidents involving vessels such as Mires and Lynx highlight these dangers. Both ships lacked ice-class certification and did not book icebreaker escorts. While Mires narrowly avoided disaster, Lynx became trapped in ice and required emergency assistance. In some cases, ships sailed without proper authorization or were missing from public NSR records, underscoring the lack of transparency and regulatory oversight.
Environmental and Safety Risks in a Poorly Prepared Arctic Region
The presence of oil tankers, LNG carriers, cargo ships, and service vessels with low or no ice-class certification poses a severe threat to Arctic ecosystems. Several LNG tankers, including Arctic Metagas, became stranded in ice after attempting voyages without icebreaker support. These incidents reveal how unprepared both vessels and authorities are for emergencies along the NSR.
Compounding the risk is Russia’s limited rescue and spill-response capacity. Only 11 rescue centers exist along the entire Arctic coastline, with just one operating during winter months on the NSR. Past accidents, such as oil spills in the Kerch Strait and the abandonment of the tanker Kairos in the Black Sea, demonstrate Russia’s inability or unwillingness to effectively assist shadow fleet vessels or protect crews and the environment.
As sanctions expand and transparency declines, the Northern Sea Route is becoming increasingly dangerous for both maritime safety and the Arctic environment. The growing reliance on aging, poorly regulated shadow fleet vessels many new to Arctic navigation greatly increases the risk of accidents with potentially catastrophic consequences. Without meaningful international intervention and reduced shipping activity along the NSR, the situation is likely to worsen. The international community must act decisively to limit these risks and prevent long-term environmental damage in one of the planet’s most vulnerable regions.
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Source: BELLONA
