- Panamax underperformed in 2025 as the US-China grain trade collapsed by nearly 78%
- Recent trade talks have triggered a visible rebound in forward grain cargoes
- Second-hand Panamax values are already reacting to improved sentiment
While dry bulk shipping has performed well overall in 2025, the Panamax segment has clearly lagged behind other vessel classes. The main drag has been the sharp slowdown in US–China grain and soybean flows. Data shows this trade declined by around 78% this year after China suspended US soybean purchases amid rising trade tensions, leaving Panamax demand particularly weak through the autumn.
Trade Talks Spark a Shift in Sentiment
A potential turning point emerged after trade negotiations in Busan in October, when the US announced that China had committed to buying 12 million tonnes of US soybeans by year-end, followed by 25 million tonnes annually over the next three years. Although Beijing has not formally confirmed these figures, market signals suggest momentum is building.
Forward Cargo Volumes Begin to Recover
Shipfix data points to a clear pickup in activity. In November, more than 2 million tonnes of grain cargoes from the US to China were circulated—three times October volumes and over six times the 2025 monthly average. If these stems materialise, Panamax utilisation is expected to improve meaningfully in the weeks ahead.
Second-Hand Values React Early
Improving confidence is already visible in the sale and purchase market. Values for 15-year-old Panamax vessels rose by roughly 5% toward the end of November. One notable sale saw a 2011-built 80,700-dwt Panamax fetch USD 18.2 million, well above the USD 15.4 million paid for a similarly aged Kamsarmax earlier in October.
The widening price gap underlines growing optimism that Panamax fundamentals may finally be turning a corner as grain trade flows return.
Did you subscribe to our daily Newsletter?
It’s Free — Click here to Subscribe!
Source – Veson Nautical
