ABS has published its Outlook for 2024 which explores the carbon-neutral fuel pathways and the transformational technologies that will support the maritime industry’s challenging journey to 2050. reports Safety4sea.
Transition to alternative fuels in bulk carriers
According to the report, for bulk carriers, there is an increasing interest in alternative propulsion options, with a significant projected transition to methanol and ammonia/hydrogen-based fuels post-2030. Seaborne crude oil and chemical products trade is projected to increase moderately. The peak in oil product trade will follow the peak in crude oil trade, with shifts in refinery locations affecting global trade flows. Chemical trade forecasts have been revised downward due to less optimistic assumptions made for economic growth.
Growth of alternative fuels in maritime shipping
Adoption of alternative fuels, such as liquefied natural gas (LNG), methanol, and ammonia, is increasing, especially in the very large crude carrier (VLCC) segment. Container trade has settled into a slower rhythm with modest downgrades in global trade volume forecasts. Shifts toward shorter-haul intra-regional trades and robust port handling growth in East Asia are noteworthy. There is a notable shift toward methanol dual-fuel propulsion among major liner operators, reflecting broader industry trends toward sustainable shipping practices.
Future prospects for LNG and LPG Carriers
For the LNG and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) carriers, e-methane, biomethane, e-ammonia, and e-hydrogen are anticipated to gain traction as fuel sources after 2030, despite a conservative start in their adoption. The revised fuel mix projection maintains the trajectory set in last year’s Outlook publication, though recent geopolitical events have caused some recalibration of the forecasting model. These events have disrupted supply chains and increased short-term fuel consumption due to the rerouting of vessels away from the Suez Canal and Red Sea area.
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Source: Safety4sea
