- Nearly 28% of the global tanker fleet is aged 16–20 years, with close to 1,000 vessels over 21 years
- Around 1,000 tankers operate in sanctioned or “dark” trades, reducing effective mainstream capacity
- Long-haul demand rises as China shifts crude imports toward Atlantic and U.S. Gulf barrels
- Age-driven attrition is expected to outpace new deliveries through 2028
According to Xclusiv Shipbrokers’ latest market commentary, the tanker market is closing 2025 with a level of structural tightness that headline fleet numbers fail to fully reflect. While fleet statistics suggest moderate growth, ageing tonnage, sanctions-related trade patterns, and rising tonne-mile demand are significantly constraining the supply of vessels available for conventional trades, reports SAFETY4SEA.
An Ageing Fleet Beneath the Surface
The global tanker fleet above 10,000 dwt now totals 7,861 vessels, representing around 709 million dwt, with an average age of 13.7 years. However, the age distribution reveals deeper structural concerns.
Around 2,226 ships—nearly 28% of the fleet—fall within the 16–20-year age bracket, while almost 1,000 vessels are already over 21 years old. This means the market is increasingly reliant on older tonnage at a time when trade disruptions, sanctions, and longer-haul voyages are pushing utilisation levels higher.
Limited Fleet Growth Meets Structural Removals
After a volatile start to 2025, both crude and product tanker markets gained momentum as fleet growth remained minimal. Although sectors such as MR2 and Aframax/LR2 accounted for most new deliveries, these additions were modest when set against structural removals from active trading.
Only a limited number of large crude carriers joined the fleet this year. Meanwhile, a growing share of tonnage has migrated into sanctioned or “dark” operations. These vessels—now estimated at around 1,000 across all tanker classes—rarely return to mainstream trades. Their inefficient operating patterns, including multi-point voyages and floating storage roles, significantly reduce the effective supply of compliant tonnage.
Long-Haul Demand Drives Tonne-Mile Growth
At the same time, tonne-mile demand surged. China’s crude imports increased by approximately 5% year-on-year, with a notable shift toward longer-haul barrels from the Atlantic Basin, Latin America, and the U.S. Gulf.
Refinery runs remained elevated, restocking activity picked up in the second half of the year, and expectations of renewed supply growth from U.S. producers strengthened following the change in U.S. administration. The market priced in higher U.S. export volumes, supporting long-haul crude movements throughout the fourth quarter.
Orderbook Growth Signals Renewal, Not Oversupply
The global tanker orderbook now stands at 1,238 vessels, equating to 15.7% of the fleet by units and 16.7% by dwt, up from 13.7% a year earlier. This increase reflects the early stages of a fleet renewal cycle rather than speculative expansion.
By segment, Suezmax tankers show the highest orderbook-to-fleet ratio at 20.3% (dwt basis), followed by Small Tankers (19.4%), VLCCs (16.7%), and Aframax/LR2 (16.5%).
Ageing Pressures Outpace Deliveries
Despite the growing orderbook, ageing remains the dominant constraint. In 2026 alone, around 580 tankers will exceed 25 years of age, rising to nearly 1,030 vessels by 2028. Over the same period, only about 1,200 newbuildings are expected to be delivered.
This imbalance suggests that net capacity growth will struggle to keep pace with natural attrition, particularly in segments such as Handy/MR1 and Panamax/LR1, where more than half of the fleet is projected to be over 21 years old by 2029.
Macro Factors Reinforce Structural Tightness
Macro conditions further support a tight market outlook. Early-2026 oil balances point toward a production surplus that could push Brent prices into the mid-50s to low-60s range, historically an environment conducive to floating storage and opportunistic buying.
If the IEA’s projection of a multi-million-barrel-per-day surplus materialises, restocking and long-haul procurement are likely to remain strong, sustaining tonne-mile demand into the new year.
Fewer Ships Truly Available
Despite a rising orderbook and a wave of deliveries expected from 2026, the tanker market enters the new year structurally constrained. Ageing fleets, inefficiencies linked to shadow tonnage, and persistent long-haul demand continue to outweigh theoretical increases in supply.
For yet another year, the market will be shaped less by how many tankers exist—and more by how few are genuinely available for mainstream trades.
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Source: SAFETY4SEA
