The three-alliance structure in container shipping, established in April 2017, is set to transition to a new arrangement in February 2025. A key metric to evaluate the alliances’ market positioning over the past eight years is distinct port-pairs—direct, non-transhipment connections between two ports.
Key Observations on Port-Pairs
- Asia-North America West Coast (NAWC):
- 2M Alliance consistently offered the fewest direct port pairs.
- Ocean Alliance and THE Alliance showed similar performance, pointing to comparable network design strategies.
- 2M’s Strategy: Likely relies on a hub-and-spoke model, emphasizing fewer direct connections and more transhipment services.
- Asia-North Europe (NEUR):
- In the early years, alliances displayed clear differences in the number of port-pairs.
- Over time, these differences have narrowed significantly, indicating convergence in strategies and services across alliances.
Market Dynamics and Resilience
- Consistency:
Despite the eight-year lifecycle of the alliance structure, the market dynamics have remained stable, with no significant changes in port-pair offerings. - Impact of Red Sea Crisis:
The Red Sea crisis, a major geopolitical event, did not materially disrupt distinct port-pair connections, suggesting strong operational resilience in carrier networks.
The analysis of distinct port-pair connections reveals two major trends:
- The stability of alliance strategies across their lifecycle.
- A notable convergence of strategies, especially on the Asia-NEUR trade route.
As the shipping industry prepares for a new alliance structure in 2025, these trends underscore the importance of network design in shaping competition and operational efficiency. The shift may introduce fresh dynamics, potentially altering the current equilibrium.
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Source: SEA-INTELLIGENCE
