Asia crude oil futures are set to remain under pressure during the week of Dec. 20-24 as countries worldwide consider fresh restrictions in response to rising COVID-19 cases.
ICE February Brent crude futures stood at $71.85/b at 0200 GMT Dec. 20, down $1.67/b (2.27%) from the Dec. 17 settlement, says a Platts Market Insight article.
Middle East Crude
Focus in the week ahead will be on the outcome of pending spot tenders for February-loading crude as well as fresh requirements from Asian refiners.
Trade activity is likely to begin tapering in the latter half of the week as buyers complete import requirements ahead of the festive holidays.
Last week Dec. 13-17, amid a narrow arbitrage window and lower spot differentials, demand for February-loading Middle East crude surged from buyers in India, China and other regional economies.
Dubai cash-futures, or M1-M3, averaged $1.57/b in the week ended Dec. 17, against $1.85/b in the week ended Dec. 10.
Intermonth spreads were narrower during mid-morning trade Dec. 20 with February-March pegged at 35 cents/b, down 5 cents/b from the Asia close Dec. 17.
February Brent-Dubai Exchange of Futures for Swaps was pegged at $2.66/b mid-morning Dec. 20, down from $2.75/b from the Asia close Dec. 17.
Asia Pacific Crude
Across the light sweet crude complex, trading activity for February-loading Ichthys Field Condensate, Cossack and Kutubu Blend are expected to begin.
March delivery barrels of Far East Russian crudes like Sakhalin Blend are anticipated to trade lower on the month amid a narrowing Brent-Dubai EFS.
Market participants are anticipating results of Brunei Energy’s February-loading Kimanis tender, as well as potential trading activity from ConocoPhillips. Spot deals for Malaysia’s Labuan, Miri and Kikeh crudes are also in focus.
On heavy sweet crudes, January loading barrels of Sudanese Nile Blend are expected to trade, while February-loading programs for Australian heavy sweet crudes are expected to emerge.
Delivered Crude
Traders await Taiwan CPC Corporation’s monthly sweet crude tender results where WTI Midland crude continues to remain a favorable option among Asian refiners. A wider WTI-Brent spread could attract volumes of WTI Midland to Asia.
Trading activity for March delivery cargoes of Brazil’s Tupi crude could remain slow as buying sentiment for post-Winter Olympics and Lunar New Year were tepid.
Crude Futures
Several European countries including the Netherlands, Ireland and Denmark imposed fresh restrictions over the weekend, while others were considering additional curbs. The UK’s health minister Sajid Javid said Dec. 19 he was not ruling out further restrictions for the country before Christmas.
Nonetheless, analysts painted a brighter outlook over the next two years. US investment bank Goldman Sachs on Dec. 17 brought back the prospect of $100/b oil in 2023, saying that level was a possibility with oil demand reaching fresh record highs over 2022 and 2023.
In the week ended Dec. 17, the international crude oil benchmarks were lower on the week. The February contract for ICE Brent futures was down 2.17% on the week to settle at $73.52/b, while the January contract for NYMEX light sweet crude was 1.13% lower at $70.86/b.
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Source: Platts
