Asian middle distillates is expected to maintain a bullish outlook for the Feb. 14-18 trading week amid prevailing tight supply and upcoming maintenance in Northeast Asia supporting sentiment, reports Platts.
At 10:00 am Singapore time (0200 GMT), the front-month April ICE Brent crude oil futures contract was at $95.69/b, up $4.23/b (4.62%) from the Feb. 11 Asian close.
Jet Fuel/Kerosene
- Support for Asian jet fuel/kerosene likely to persist over the coming week, with tight regional supply continuing to bolster sentiment amid an open arbitrage to move cargoes west. Market participants said upcoming turnarounds in Northeast Asia, which is expected to exacerbate the tight supply situation, as well as ongoing geopolitical tensions could lend further support.
- Brokers pegged balance February-March jet fuel/kerosene time spread at plus $1.55/b at 0200 GMT Feb. 14, narrowing 14 cents/b from plus $1.69/b at the 0830 GMT Asian close Feb. 11, Platts data showed.
- The FOB Singapore jet fuel/kerosene cash differential was assessed at plus $1.27/b to the Mean of Platts Singapore jet fuel/kerosene assessments at the Asian close Feb. 11, down 18 cents from the previous session, Platts data showed.
- Japan’s kerosene stocks dropped 10.3% week on week to 10.06 million barrels Feb. 5, according to the Petroleum Association of Japan data released Feb. 9. The estimated domestic kerosene shipments surged 44.5% on the week to 3.07 million barrels in the week to Feb. 5, S&P Global Platts calculations based on the PAJ data showed.
- The Q1-Q2 jet fuel/kerosene swap spread, an indication of near-term sentiment, averaged plus $2.45/b over Feb. 7-11, widening from plus $2.32/b the week before.
Gasoil
- Asian gasoil remains rangebound, albeit at a strong level, on the back of ongoing support from crimped supply despite refineries’ continued incentive to maximize gasoil production, while demand remains largely steady. Weather-related loading disruptions at the Russian ports of Novorossiisk and Primorsk also lent support to the Asian gasoil complex amid a deeply negative Exchange of Futures for Swaps spread that indicates viable East-West arbitrage flows.
- Brokers pegged balance February-March Singapore gasoil at plus $2.11/b at 0200 GMT Feb. 14, widening from plus $1.90/b at the 0830 GMT Asian close Feb. 11.
- The March EFS spread was pegged at minus $28/b at 0200 GMT Feb. 14, widening $3.83/b from minus $24.17/mt at the Feb. 11 close.
- Singapore’s commercial stockpiles of jet fuel and gasoil fell 9.43% week on week to a four-week low of 7.44 million barrels Feb. 3-9, Enterprise Singapore data released Feb. 10 showed. The drop came amid a backwardated curve in the prompt-month Singapore gasoil derivative time spread.
- The Q1-Q2 gasoil swap spread averaged plus $3.27/b Feb. 7-11, widening from plus $3.07/b the week before.
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Source: Platts
