Ocean carriers have announced rate increases for shipping containers on the Asia-US trade lane, but industry analysts expect rates to continue facing downward pressure amid soft demand and the lack of a peak season.
Lars Jensen, president of consultant Vespucci Maritime, said the rate hike announcements have been a monthly occurrence without much success.
“Carriers have announced rate increases of $1,000-3,000/FEU (40-foot equivalent unit) from 1 September on the Pacific, but they have also done so basically every fortnight for the past couple of months without any success, leading to rates which are now becoming unsustainably low,” Jensen said.
Jensen noted that the announcement on Friday by US President Donald Trump of a major investigation on furniture entering the country could prop up demand.
“Furniture coming from other Countries into the United States will be Tariffed at a Rate yet to be determined,” Trump said in a post on his social media platform Truth Social.
Jensen said the two HS codes 9403 and 9401, covering furniture and parts as well as seats and furniture, accounted for 800,000 TEU of imports equal to some 6.9% of total US imports in the second quarter of this year.
“A sharp ramp-up in tariffs could therefore have a material impact on container demand,” Jensen said. “It should be noted that there was a strong year-on-year increase in furniture imports early in 2025 and hence importers appear to have frontloaded cargo prior to such tariffs.”
NO PEAK SEASON IN 2025
Even as carriers announce general rate increases (GRIs) for September, shippers need not worry about peak season surcharges, according to an analyst at ocean and freight rate analytics firm Xeneta.
Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, said the continuing trend for increasing capacity on fronthaul trades and subdued ocean container shipping demand will contribute to spot rates falling further in the coming weeks.
“Shippers should not fear peak season surcharges because, quite simply, there is no traditional peak season in 2025,” Sand said.
Sand said average spot rates to the US East Coast are now at the lowest level since the end of 2023.
“The rate of decline may have slowed from the dramatic drops in July, but this gradual erosion will continue because there is still room for spot rates to fall further,” Sand said.
The low spot rates will also impact negotiations for long-term contracts going forward, Sand said.
“Shippers looking to sign new long-term contracts have much to consider because they must balance where rates are right now, where they are likely to be in 2026, and how much of an impact the ongoing conflict in the Red Sea conflict should have on the rates they are paying on each trade,” Sand said.
Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) is also shipped in containers.
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Source: ICIS
