- Atlantic Supramax spot rates declined in Q4 2024, with the index peaking at $18,888/d in October and falling to $13,962/d in December.
- Increased tonnage availability constrained freight rates despite strong regional demand for agribulk and minor bulk exports.
- US Gulf Coast agribulk exports to the Far East grew, offsetting a 31% decline in coal shipments.
- South Atlantic grains saw trans-Atlantic volumes rise 39% year-over-year, while fronthaul volumes dropped 36%.
The Atlantic Supramax dry bulk market in Q4 2024, as reported by S&P Global, was marked by continued volatility and fluctuating spot rates. While cargo demand showed positive momentum in some regions, the market ultimately reflected the impact of increased tonnage availability and global economic factors.
Atlantic Basin Trade Trends
The trade from the Atlantic Basin to both intra-Atlantic and fronthaul Far East destinations exhibited a modest 5% quarter-over-quarter increase compared to Q3 2024. However, year-over-year comparisons showed a significant 13% decline. The availability of Supramax tonnage in the region constrained freight rate growth, even as fundamentals remained strong in key areas.
Market Index Performance
The Atlantic Supramax weighted average index (ASI 6 Index 0.5% VLSFO TCE) peaked at $18,888/d in late October before dropping to a quarterly low of $13,962/d in December. On average, the index fell 21% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting broader bearish market forces despite occasional upward movements.
US Gulf Coast Export Dynamics
The US Gulf Coast (USGC) saw increased transits through the Panama Canal for fronthaul trips to the Far East, with laden Supramax passages rising 34% quarter-over-quarter. Volumes of agribulk and minor bulk cargo showed significant growth, compensating for a 31% decline in coal shipments. Spot rates for grains and petcoke routes experienced mixed trends, with year-over-year improvements despite quarterly declines.
South Atlantic Grains Market Trends
The East Coast South America (ECSA) grains market demonstrated positional dynamics in Q4 2024, with trans-Atlantic shipments outpacing fronthaul volumes. Trans-Atlantic trip volumes saw a year-over-year increase of 39%, while fronthaul volumes fell by 36%. Despite seasonal improvements, the South Atlantic market faced sluggish sentiment by the end of the quarter.
Scrap Market in the Continent and Baltic Sea
Scrap volumes from Northwest Europe to the Mediterranean and Turkish ports increased by 10% quarter-over-quarter in Q4, reaching a yearly high. The balanced market supply in the region prevented significant pressure on freight rates, yielding steady growth in spot rates.
Challenges and Outlook for 2025
The Supramax segment enters 2025 with challenges related to fleet supply growth outpacing demand. Increased geopolitical and economic uncertainties, including potential changes in US-China trade tariffs, could shift trade patterns, adding further complexity to global dry bulk trade.
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Source: S&P Global
