North West Europe crude oil exports 2023 so far has been another positive period for crude oil trade,despite the high oil prices and risks of economic recession.
In Jan-Aug 2023, global crude oil loadings went up +7.0% y-o-y to 1,440.7 mln tonnes, excluding all cabotage trade, according to vessels tracking data from Refinitiv.This was well above the 1,346.5 mln tonnes in Jan-Aug 2022 and the 1,240.3 mln t of Jan-Aug 2021, but also slightly above the 1,397.3 mln tonnes in the same period of 2019.Exports from the Arabian Gulf were up +0.4% y-o-y to 581.0 mln t in Jan- Aug 2023, and accounted for 40.3% of global seaborne crude oil trade.Exports from Russia have also increased by +4.7% y-o-y to 154.8 mln tonnes, or 10.7% of global trade. Shipments from the USA surged by +19.9% y-o-y to 126.4 mln tonnes.
From West Africa, exports increased by +0.5% y-o-y to 115.5 mln t.In terms of demand, seaborne imports into China increased by
+23.0% y-o-y to 341.0 mln t in Jan-Aug 2023, 23.6% of global trade. North West Europe, i.e. Norway and the United Kingdom, accounted for 5.2 percent of global seaborne crude oil shipments in 2022. Crude oil shipments from Norway and the United Kingdom increased by +12.0% y-o-y in 2020 to 110.0 mln tonnes, excluding cabotage and offshore shuttle trade.In 2021, volumes remained substantially flat, with a -0.5% y-o-y decline to 109.5 mln tonnes.
In 2022, exports from North West Europe declined by -1.9% y-o-y to 107.4 mln t, the lowest since 2019. In the first 8 months of 2023, North-West Europe exported 74.3 mln tonnes of crude, up +3.6% y-o-y from 71.7 mln tonnes in the same period of 2022. Exports were almost perfectly split between the two countries back in 2020. However, this is no longer the case and in 2022 Norway exported 68.9 mln tonnes whilst the UK exported just 38.5 mln tonnes.
Capesize market
Atlantic and Pacific basin
The Capesize market remained very positive with fixing activity relatively stable during last week as players were seeking to cover their position ahead of the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and Golden Week holidays in the East.
On period, Five Ocean fixed a 210,000 dwt scrubber fitted, ex Jinhai Shipyard for 18/22 months at $25,000/d. In Pacific, Rio Tinto fixed 3 x TBN vessels to load their 170,000 mt +/-10% iron ore from Dampier to Qingdao, laydays 13/16 October, 14/16 October and 15/17 October,at $9.90/mt, $9.85/mt $9.80/mt respectively. Vale fixed 2 x TBN vessels to load 170,000 mt +/- 10% iron ore from TRMT to Qingdao, laydays ⅓ October and 6/8 October, at $7.45/mt and $8.20/mt respectively. The MV Maran Argonaut (177835 dwt | 2009 built) was fixed basis delivery Singapore early October for one timecharter trip via Brazil (with option West Africa) to the Far East at $21,000/d + $500,000 gross ballast bonus.
In the Atlantic basin, Vale fixed a mini-COA for their stem of 185,000mt +/- 10% iron ore from Tubarão to Qingdao, basis one cargo per month from 1st November to 31st December in the region of $18.00/mt with a $500/mt bunker adjustment factor.
Bunge fixed the MV Great Song (180388 dwt | 2011 built) to lift a cargo of 170,000mt +/- 10% iron ore from Tubarão to Qingdao, laydays 16-25 October at $23.15/mt.
Anglo fixed the MV Am Kirti (180855 dwt | 2019 built) to load a stem of 170,000mt +/- 10% iron ore from Açu to China, laydays 15-25 October at $23.15/mt.
Koch fixed the MV True Crusader (179655 dwt | 2016 built) to load a cargo of 170,000mt +/- 10% iron ore from Sudeste to Qingdao, laydays 23/29 October at $25.25/mt.
TKSE fixed a Costamare TBN to load its cargo of 180,000mt +/- 10% iron ore from Itaguaí to Rotterdam, laydays 15/25 October at $11.95/mt. Vale fixed the MV Premiership (170024 dwt | 2010 built) to load a cargo of minimum/maximum 150,000mts iron ore from Tubarão to Misurata, laydays 10/19 October at $17.10/mt.
Nothing to report from S Africa, but as the market remains strong, the freight rates for cargoes loaded out of South Africa should follow the current trend.
Atlantic basin
The last week of Q3 shifted the attention to a particularly healthy and very active N Atlantic.
P1A_82 gained around $2,000/d during the week for standard Kamsarmaxes.
A top Kamsarmax was rumored at $19,000/d for a trip via US EC and redely Skaw/Gib (scrubber in owners’ favour).
P2A_82 also improved with an increase of around $700/d. Short fronthauls were gaining quite a large premium compared to previous weeks as the end of the grain season from the Atlantic approach, also undermining the value of repositioning.
For instance, a 2016 built Kamsarmax achieved mid $28,000s/d for a trip via US EC to India wit coal. From S America, ballasters count from Singapore was increasing as grain cargoes were slowly decreasing, however the physical market seems to hold tight despite decreasing FFAs.
A 2011, 81,000 dwt was reported fixed by a grain house at $20,000/d basis dely aps S America for a trip to Continent with grains.
Regarding P6_82 a top Kamsarmax achieved around $19,000/d basis dely aps retro Singapore for a trip via Santos and redely Spore/Jpn range.
Pacific basin
The Pacific market was driven once again by NoPac grains, but after the increase of the past weeks, it recorded some adjustments, mainly due to a higher supply of tonnage in N China/S Korea/Japan range. Vessels were fixed around low $12,000/d basis standard
Kamsarmax.
The Indonesian coal trade was slightly lower around mid $10,000s/11,000/d for vessels open in S China. Few fixtures were reported from Australia at levels similar to NoPac.
Supramax and handysize market North America
The market in USG softened both for Supramax and Ultramax despite decent activity. Ultramaxes were fixed on fronthauls in the mid $20,000s/d, Supramaxes in the low $20,000s/d with grains, petcoke premium was a few cents. Ultramaxes on TA were in the high $10,000s/d to Cont, Supramaxes were around $16/17,000/d with coal to E Med. Handies followed the same trend with a longer tonnage list. A 34,000 dwt was fixed for a trip to Cont at $12,800/d basis dely aps Jamaica.
South America
The market was still firm on all sizes. A Tess58 was fixed at $15,750/d + 575,000 gbb basis dely Santos for a trip to SE Asia with grains. A 61,000 dwt was fixed at $26,000/d basis dely N Brazil for a trip with grains to WCCAm. On Handies, a shallow 35,000 dwt was on subs basis dely aps Recalada for a trip to Matadi + Luanda at $16,000/d. A 33,000 dwt was fixed around $15/16,000/d on a fronthaul to China basis dely N Brazil. A 36,000 dwt was fixed basis dely aps for 2 laden legs, redely Atlantic at $14,500/d.
North Europe
Activity was still good in Cont. A 57,000 dwt was fixed at $21,000/d basis dely dop Cont for a trip to E Africa, a Supramax was fixed at $19,000/d basis dely dop UK for a trip via Baltic to Med. The Russian market was also strong with a 56,000 dwt fixed with fertilizers to Brazil via St. Petersburg around low $20,000s/d basis dely dop Baltic. Fronthaul trips via Russia was fixed at low/mid $30,000s/d basis dely Skaw on Supramax/Ultramax to India with either fertilizers or coal.
Black sea
The market remains quite solid, although a negative sentiment has spread last week and some routes have softened, but in general levels remained roughly the same. CrossMed on 35,000 dwt tonnage was at $17,000/d basis dely passing Canakkale, $17,500/18,000/d if dely inside BSea. Supramaxes were getting rates around $20,000s/d. On TAs, Handies were fixed at $15,000/d to ECSAm and $16,000/d to USG. Supramaxes were in around $20,000/d and low $20,000s/d. Supramaxes were fixing in the very low $20,000s/d for trip to USG, while the trip to ECSAm was paying slightly over. Trips to East stabilized in the high $20,000s/d after increasing considerably over the last few weeks, Handies were in the mid $20,000s/d.
Indian Ocean
Throughout the week rates softened in the Indian Ocean. A 57,000 dwt was fixed at $16,500/d for a trip to Bangladesh basis aps loadport. Towards end of the week a 61,000 dwt was fixed aps loadport in UAE at $17,000/d for similar business. An 63,000 dwt was then fixed at an even lower $16,000/d to F East. The market weakened in ECI as well also due to iron ore prices tumbling during the week.
Most Supramaxes were fixed for Indonesian coal trips rather than iron due to this reason. A 56,000 dwt open ECI achieved $13,000/d basis dely dop for a trip via Indonesia with coal to India. Early in the week rates were still strong from S Africa and a Dolphin64 was fixed at $20,750/d + 200,000 gbb to F East.
Then a 63,000 dwt achieved $20,000/d + 200,000 gbb. Towards the end of the week another 63,000 dwt got $19,000/d + 190,000 gbb. Pacific Rates remained stable despite activity decreased due to the holidays in China. A 56,000 dwt with dely Philippines was reported at $17,000/d for a trip via Indonesia to China, a 63,000 dwt with dely Indonesia achieved $18,000/d to the same destination and a 58,000 dwt with dely Thailand was done at $14,500/d for a trip via Indonesia to Cambodia with coal. On Handies, a 34,000 dwt with dely N China was fixed at $9,500/d for a trip to S China with steel rebars and a 39,000 dwt with dely N China got $12,000/d for a RV via Australia.
Crude tanker market
The VLCC market eased from last week highs closing at WS50 level for 270,000 mt MEG-China and at WS52 level for 260,000 mt W Africa-China. Suezmax rates remained sideways in the West with the last done on W Africa-UKCM and US EC off 19th October, at WS67.5.
The market was busy from Basrah, however rates softened due to good tonnage supply, Petraco off 7 and 8, Repsol off 12 and Shell off 18 October dates covered their requirements at WS55. Higher numbers were traded on Friday. Rates for MEG-F East remained around WS100. Aframax closed the week on a softer tone in Med, most of the 1st decade of October cargoes were covered, rates down to WS107.5 level. In NW Europe, the market remained in the low WS90s whilst rates for 70,000 mt WTI to Europe moved up 5 points to WS95.
New building orders
Eastern Pacific turned to Japan Marine United for 2 x 211,000 dwt Newcastlemax to be delivered in 2025. Apparently the two vessels will be conventionally fuelled and the price still remains undisclosed. In the same segment, CMB controlled Bocimar added 2 x 210,000 dwt Newcastlemax to the ones already on order from Qingdao Beihai, at the price of $66 mln apiece and delivery in 2027. Vessels will be dual-fuel ammonia ready.
Diana Shipping was reported signing a letter of intent with Tsuneishi for 2 x 81,300 dwt dual-fuel methanol Kamsarmax bulk carriers; the vessels will be built in Tsuneishi’s affiliated yard in Zhoushan, with deliveries in 2027 and 2028, priced $46 mln each. In tanker market, the most notable news was the decision of Hengli H.I. to build 2 x 306,000 dwt VLCC for their own account, delivery expected in June 2026 and price undisclosed. China based Zhejiang Xinyihai Shipping chose Ningbo Xinle to build a 8,500 dwt chemical tanker with delivery set for September 2024 and the price was not reported.
Container ship market
Seasonal demand had been progressively weakening in the past four weeks, ahead of China’s Golden Week holiday and is expected to bottom at the beginning of October. Also, additional relets were entering the market struggling to find employment due to such a chronic lack of demand.
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Source: Capitallinksshipping
