Australian LNG exports
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to surge last year, helped also by the events in
Ukraine which forces Europe to diversify away fromRussian pipeline gas.In the full 12
months of 2022, global shipments of LNG increased by
+4.9% y-o-y to 404.1 mln t, based on Definitiv vessel tracking data.This year, things started
very strongly in the first quarter, but then slowed down somewhat over the spring and
summer.
In the first 8 months of 2023, LNG shipments increased by +1.7% y-o-y to 271.8 mln tonnes,
from 267.2 mln tonnes in the same period last year.By far the biggest increase in demand
over the last couple of years came from Europe.In Jan-Dec 2022, the European Union
imported 100.9 mln tonnes of LNG,an increase of +68.9% y-o-y from the 59.7 mln tonnes
imported in 2021.In the first 8 months of 2023, the EU imported 69.8 mln tonnes of LNG,
which was +6.7% more than in the same period last year.The EU27 now accounts for 25.7%
of
global seaborne LNG imports, well ahead of China in second place with 16.7% and Japan
with 16.1%.In Jan-Aug 2023, the United
Kingdom also imported 11.3 mln tonnes of LNG, -6.2% y-o-y from the 12.1 mln t in Jan-Aug
2022, but well above the 7.6 mln t in Jan-Aug 2021.The UK now accounts for 4.2%of global
LNG imports.Mainland China imported 45.3 mln tonnes of LNG in Jan-Aug 2023,+10.4%
y-o-y from 41.0 mln t in JanAug 2022, but below the 52.4 mln t
in Jan-Aug 2021.
India saw a modest +1.0% y-o-y
increase to 13.6 mln t in Jan-Aug
2023, but was well below the 15.9
mln t in Jan-Aug 2021.Japan saw a -14.6% y-o-y decline in imports in Jan-Aug 2023 to 43.8
mln tonnes, which is the lowest volumes
in at least a decade.Australia over the last two years has managed to overtake Qatar to the
spot of top exporter of LNG in the world.
In the full year of 2022, Australia exported 81.3 mln tonnes of seaborne LNG, according to
Refinitiv vessel tracking data. This accounted for 20.1% of global LNG shipments.Qatar was
just behind with 79.9 mlnt, or a 19.8% share, in 2022.The USA were third with 79.4 mln t,or a
19.7% share, in 2022.In the first 8 months of 2023,Australia exported 53.9 mln tonnes
of LNG, which was a +1.3% y-o-y increase.
This was behind the USA’s 57.4 mln tonnes but ahead of Qatar’s 53.1mln t in the same
Jan-Aug period.Top loading ports for Australian LNGin are: Gladstone (15.6 mln t in JanAug 2023), Dampier (13.0 mln t),Barrow Island (10.8 mln t),Ashburton (6.8 mln t), Darwin
(5.9
mln t), Prelude FLNG (1.9 mln t).In terms of destinations for Australian LNG, it’s almost
entirely shipped to East Asian destinations.
In Jan-Aug 2023, LNG exports from Australia to Mainland China increased by +15.6% y-o-y
to 16.2 mln tonnes from 14.0 mln t in Jan-Aug 2022, but was still well below the 21.3 mln t in
Jan-Aug 2021.China is now the destination for
30.0% of Australia’s total LNG exports in Jan-Aug 2023.Volumes to Japan have declined in
Jan-Aug 2023 by -14.1% y-o-y to 18.3
mln tonnes from 21.3 mln t in Jan-Aug 2022, but are above the 18.1mln t in Jan-Aug 2021.
Japan is the destination for 34.0% of Australian LNG shipments this year.The third top
destination is South Korea, which accounts for 31.1% of Australian LNG shipments in 2023.
Shipments from Australia to South Korea declined by -6.9% y-o-y in Jan-Aug 2023 to 7.0
mln tonnes.To South East Asia volumes
increased by +28.5% y-o-y to 6.2 mln tonnes in Jan-Aug 2023.This includes 2.5 mln tonnes
to
Thailand (up from 1.3 mln t in Jan-Aug 2022 and 0.2 mln t in Jan-Aug2021), as well as 1.9
mln t to Singapore, and 1.5 mln t to Malaysia.
Capesize market
Atlantic and Pacific basin
Last week was marked by considerable reduction in earnings int he Capesize segment due
to an excess of tonnage available in the
Pacific.The BCI 5TC closed the week at
$8,561/d, which is $1,100/d less compared to the previous week.In the Pacific, BHP fixed
four TBN vessels to lift their cargoes of 160,000mt +/- 10% iron ore from Port Hedland to
Qingdao, laydays 13/15 September, 2 x 14/16 September and 16/18 September
respectively at $7.70 /mt, $7.55/$7.50 /mt and 7.60 /mt.Rio Tinto also fixed two TBN vessels
to load their cargo of 170,000mt +/-10% iron ore from Dampier to Qingdao, laydays 16/18
September and 17/19 September, respectively
at a freight rate of $7.50 /mt and
$7.60 /mt.The MV C. Vision (173723 dwt |
2008 built) was fixed basis delivery Mailiao, around 7/8 September for an East coast
Australia coal cargo with redelivery Vietnam at around $10,000/d to Richland.The MV
Antwerp (172424 dwt |2003 built) was fixed basis delivery retro Singapore for a trip via the
Baltic, option Black Sea, with redelivery at the Far East at $19,000/d.
In the Atlantic basin, Oldendorff
fixed a TBN vessel at $18.70 /mt
basis C3 for laycan 15/25
September. CSN also fixed a TBN vessel for their stem of 180,000mt +/- 10% iron ore from
Itaguaí to Qingdao, laydays 1/15 October, at a freight rate in the mid $19’s /mt.Trafigura took
three ships For cargoes from Sudeste to Qingdao at region of $19.15 /mt.
The MV First Phoenix (182591 dwt |2020 built) was fixed for a cargo from Kamsar to Yantai
for laycan 16/19 September at $18.35 /mt.
Flame fixed the MV MSXT Trinity (178076 dwt |2010 built) for a cargo of 160,000mt +/- 10%
coal from Drummond to Yongheung, laycan
15/25 September at $24.00 /mt Out of South Africa, quite some activity reported. Ore and
Metal fixed a cargo of 170,000 +/- 10% iron
ore from Saldanha Bay to Qingdao,laycan 23/27 at $13.85 /mt.Baosteel fixed a cargo of
200,000mt+/- 10% iron ore from Saldanha Bay
to Qingdao for a laycan 10/19 September at $13.50 /mt. NYK fixed a TBN vessel to load a
cargo of 170,000mt +/-10% iron ore
from Saldanha Bay to Qingdao basis
laydays 21/30 September at $14.25
/mt.
Panamax market
Atlantic basin
A very promising start for Panamax Atlantic market with a negative twist towards the end of
the week when rates decreased alongside demand especially in N Atlantic regions. Despite
that, overall it was a positive week leaving the floor to what seems to be a stronger and
healthier last month of Q3 and consequently Q4.
P1A_82 closed the week at $13,820/d (losing around 1k compared to previous
week,probably due to the weak mineral and grains activity for TransAtlantic trips, and
P2A_82 at $22,477/d with an 82,000 dwt built 2012 fixed at mid $22,000/d for a trip via USG
redely Spore/Japan range with grains.
Activity in S America was pretty much constant throughout the whole week with rates slightly
adjusting after a very encouraging start.
A nice ballasting Kamsarmax got around $16,000/d dely retro Spore for a trip via ECSAm
redelivery Spore/Japan.Some TA activity was recorded as well and an 81,000 dwt was fixed
at mid/low $19,000/d for a trip to
Ireland with grains.
Pacific basin
The last week of August started slowly due to holidays in UK.An 80,400 dwt built 2012 was
fixed at $12,500/d + 400,000 basis dely Vancouver on a NoPac and a scrubber fitted 82,700
built 2008 got $9,000/d basis dely Hong Kong for a trip via Indonesia redely India.
An 81,900 built 2017 was on subjects at $12,000/d basis dely Bayuquan 4/5 September for a
trip via Long Beach and redely Spore/Japan. A 81,500 dwt built 2019 got
$12,000/d basis dely S Japan for a
trip via EC Australia and redely S
China.
Supramax and handysize market
Us Gulf/North America
The market increased during the
week.Handies 37,000 dwt were fixed
around $8,500/d to Cont whilst on fronthaul no news emerged.On Supramax a TA to Med
was fixed around $14,500/15,000/d with
sulphur. Not much activity was reported for
Supramax on fronthaul.On Ultramax a 63,000 dwt was fixed to F East at $22,000/d and a TA
to Egypt was rumored at $19,500/d
with coal.
East Coast Soutj America
Rates increased a bit during the week
following the trend of the other
Atlantic areas.A 37,000 dwt built 2019 was fixed basis dely N Brazil with bulk alumina
and a duration of 30 days wog for one trip to Continent, intention Norway, at $16,000/d.
On fronthaul nothing was reported on Handysize and the rate was assessed around
minimum $19,000/d for quality Handysize
tonnage. A nice 61,000 dwt was fixed at
$16,000/d + 600,000 gbb basis for a
tct to Spore/Jpn with grains. On TA no reports were available for Supramax and Ultramax
tonnage. A 55,000 dwt was evaluated around
$19,000/d basis dely ECSAm for a tct
to Cont/Med.
Rates in MEG/WCI recorded another
positive week. On the usual aggregate trade to
Bangladesh, a 63,000 dwt open UAE
was fixed around $17,000/d.For a similar trip a Dolphin57 was fixed at $16,000/d basis dely
dop Sohar.Backhaul trips were also paying
higher rates and a 56,000 dwt open MEG was heard to USG at $10,000/d with fertiliser.
The fertiliser trade from MEG to Red Sea saw a 64,000 dwt open MEG fixed at $16,000/d
dop. Also period rates increased during
the week with reports of a 63,000 dwt open WCI at $15,000/d for short period (4/6 or 6/8
months).Smaller 56,000 dwt open UAE were fixed around $14,000/d for 3/5
months.
A 56,000 dwt open WCI got $12/12,250/d for 5/7 months.Rates remained more or less flat
from ECI with a few fixtures at lower levels and a few at higher levels.A 56,000 dwt was
rumoured fixed around $6,750/d basis dely dop
Chittagong with iron ore via ECI to
China. A Tess52 open ECI was fixed with
clinker via WCI to Bangladesh at
$7,000/d.
From S Africa to F East, a 63,000 dwt
open Chittagong achieved $11,500/11,750/d basis dely dop. Earlier in the week on the same
route a 63,000 dwt was heard fixed
aps S Africa at $18,500/d + 185,000
gbb levels.A Tess52 open Tanzania was fixed at$16,000/d basis dely dop via S Africato
India.
Far East / Pacific
Rates remained more or less stable both on Handies and Supramax. A 53,000 dwt with dely
Singapore was fixed at $9,000/d for a trip via
Indonesia to China and a 58,000 dwt with dely Indonesia was done at $9,500/d for the same
trip. On West direction, a 63,000 dwt with
dely N China was reported at $10,250/d for a trip via Indonesia to Bangladesh with coal, a
56,000 dwt delivering Spore took $12,200/d for a trip via Indonesia to Chittagong and a
60,000 dwt with dely Indo was fixed at $14,500/d for a trip via to WCI. On Handies, a 32,000
dwt with dely mid-China was reported at $9,500/d for a trip via F East to ECI with steels.
Crude tanker market
VLCC rates slid down to WS44 for 270,000 mt MEG-China and to WS47 for 260,000 mt W
Afr-China. The Suezmax market in W Africa
closed at a softer WS70 with cargoes covered at least till 20 Sep.Rates for 140,000 mt
Basrah-Med were down to WS57.5 level;
Trafigura, Tupras and Avin covered cargoes 13, 14 and 15 September,whilst rates for
130,000 mt MEG-F East softened to WS85 level.
Aframax rates were down to WS102.5 for CrossMed, Ceyhan cargoes covered up to around
10 Sep, and to WS125 level ex CPC.
In NW Europe rates were down to WS105 for local voyages. Rates for 70,000 mt WTI to
Europe softened to WS115.
In the East rates continued to slide further, to WS102.5 level for 80,000 mt from MEG.
Up to 5 (vs 3) VLCC and to 1 (vs 1)
Suezmax waiting off China laden for
more than 2 weeks.Delays at Turkish straits stable at abt 2.5 days both n/b and s/b.
Containership market
Charter rates kept softening: a standard 1700 teu was estimated only around $11,500/d and
even in the liner workhorse sector, Panamax
4000/5300 teu, rates kept weakening below $20,000/d.
With just over a month to go before China’s Golden Week, after which the seasonal
slowdown will begin ocean carriers are belatedly increasing their blank sailings on major
trade routes (Asia-NorthEurope/Asia-Med/Asia-North America).
According to officials of the Panama Canal Authority, the restrictions on daily vessel transit
numbers through the Panama Canal are expected to remain for at least 10 months causing
further consistent backlog of vessels
around the Canal. While containerships, which have fixed schedules, tend to have reserved
slots, the voyage plans for the tramp
trades will continue to be hit hard by
the ongoing congestion.
New building orders
In the dry sector, Tsuneishi Cebu in the Philippines received an order for 5 x Ultramax
65,825 dwt new design to be delivered between 2025 and 2026.
The buyer is still undisclosed, but vessels are believed to be ordered on a speculative basis,
to be re-sold or chartered with purchase option.
Bohai Ocean Shipping added 3 more Kamsarmax from Chinese yard Hengli Heavy Industry,
for delivery in 2027. In the boxships market, French Owner CMA CGM reached an
agreement in principle with Shanghai
Waigaoqiao for the construction of 8 x 9,200 teu containerships; while the order has not
been officially confirmed yet, the rumoured price is $126 mln, with deliveries in 2027 and
2028.
Dalian Shipbuilding received an order from China Merchants Energy Shipping to build 1
VLCC, scheduled for April 2026, the price reported $107.5 mln.
Due to pressure on construction space, options continue to be rapidly exercised.
JP Morgan ordered 2 more 50,000 dwt product carriers from Guangzhou Shipyard at $50
mln
each. In total four ships are now on order
with the last two expected in 2026.
Second hand sales
Turkish buyers were reported to be behind the purchase of Santa Lucia 176,000 dwt built
2006 Namura (BWTS fitted) at $16.35 mln.
A vintage Panamax, Anna 75,000 dwt built 2002 Hitachi (SS due 2027 DD due 2025 BWTS
fitted) was reported at $10 mln to Vietnamese buyers. A few weeks ago Despina D 76,000
dwt built 2004 Imabari was reported at $10.25 mln. After offers were invited last week, the
Japanese controlled Lowlands
Breeze 61,000 dwt built 2013 Iwagi (SS due 2028 BWTS fitted) was sold to Greek buyers at
high $20s mln. In the tanker market, 2 modern
VLCCs were reported to be part of refinancing deal, Landbridge Horizon and Landbridge
Glory 308,000 dwt built 2019 Dalian were
sold at $204 mln en bloc to CSSC Hong Kong Kong including 9 and 7 years BB back to
present Owners at $29,500/d with purchase obl
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