- The crude tanker market is expected to remain balanced in 2025 before edging weaker in 2026, while product tanker capacity growth will outpace demand in both years.
- Slower economic expansion and Trump-era tariff uncertainty have trimmed the IEA’s oil-demand forecasts to +0.7 mbpd for 2025 (down from +1.1 mbpd) and +0.8 mbpd for 2026.
- Oil supply will exceed demand by almost 1 mbpd in each of the next two years, pressuring prices but potentially boosting tanker ton-mile demand via rising inventories.
Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, expects the crude tanker sector to enjoy a broadly balanced market in 2025 before “a slight weakening in 2026.” In contrast, the product tanker segment is set to soften in both 2025 and 2026, as an influx of newbuild deliveries outstrips incremental demand growth.
Trade Policy Uncertainty and Oil-Demand Revisions
The fallout from unpredictable US import tariffs under President Trump has dented global economic sentiment and curtailed oil-demand prospects. Consequently, the International Energy Agency now projects oil-demand growth of just 0.7 million barrels per day in 2025—down from 1.1 mbpd in its February outlook—and 0.8 mbpd in 2026.
Supply Outpacing Demand and Price Implications
Whereas refinery throughput is only set to rise by 0.4 mbpd each year, global oil supply will expand by 1.6 mbpd in 2025 and 1.0 mbpd in 2026 as OPEC+ unwinds production cuts, … said Rasmussen. This supply surplus—nearly 1 mbpd in both years—should keep crude prices under downward pressure, although cheaper crude may help underpin consumption.
Inventory Build and Tanker Demand
An oversupplied market is likely to swell oil inventories, which in turn supports ton-mile demand for crude tankers. Even if normal Suez Canal and Red Sea routings resume following the US–Houthi ceasefire, BIMCO estimates crude and product tanker demand would still finish 1 percent and 3.5 percent below forecast levels, respectively.
Recycling and Fleet Dynamics
After two years of minimal scrapping, BIMCO anticipates ship recycling activity to rebound in 2025 and to double again in 2026. Nevertheless, a large backlog of aging vessels means actual recycling could exceed these projections.
Volume Growth Requirements
With year-to-date cargo volumes trailing last year’s levels, the remainder of 2025 must see crude tanker volumes climb 2.0 percent and product tanker volumes 1.0 percent year-on-year to hit BIMCO’s full-year targets. “Continued US trade policy uncertainty could meanwhile hurt private consumption and industrial production and drive volumes lower than our forecast,” … commented Rasmussen.
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Source: BIMCO
