According to BIMCO, the global dry bulk sector is set to reach a near equilibrium between fleet supply and demand in the short term before facing a possible slowdown beyond 2026.
Recent market projections suggest that the dry bulk fleet supply is expected to grow at a steady pace — 1.4% in 2025, 2.5% in 2026, and 2.7% in 2027. Meanwhile, demand growth will likely range between 1.5% to 2.5% in 2025, 1.5% to 2.8% in 2026, and 1.0% to 2.0% in 2027. This indicates that, while the market may achieve temporary balance in the coming years, vessel oversupply could resurface as a key concern toward 2027.
The analysis highlights how recent moderation in newbuilding orders and restrained demolition activity have supported stable capacity growth. However, as global trade conditions evolve, any demand contraction could quickly erode the fragile balance achieved in the market.
Industry observers are keeping a close eye on tonnage utilization trends, freight rates, and commodity flow patterns — particularly in coal, grain, and minor bulks — to gauge how the upcoming demand fluctuations will shape earnings across vessel segments.
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Source: SAFETY4SEA
