- BIMCO forecasts up to 16,000 ships (700 million DWT) could be recycled over the next decade, doubling the number from the past 10 years.
- Bulkers, tankers, and container ships are expected to account for 91% of the DWT, though only 53% of ship count.
- South Asia—particularly Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan—will likely remain the dominant hub for ship recycling.
- Annual recycling volumes from 2027 could surpass the 2012 record, driven by market shifts and decarbonization efforts.
The global shipping industry is set to see a significant rise in ship recycling activity over the next decade, with estimates now pointing to 16,000 ships—or 700 million deadweight tonnes (DWT)—expected to be dismantled. This updated forecast, highlighted by BIMCO Chief Shipping Analyst Niels Rasmussen, comes as the Hong Kong Convention officially takes effect. The scale of projected recycling underscores the urgent need for enhanced, compliant recycling infrastructure. This insight was shared in the latest “Shipping Number of the Week” by Safety4Sea.
Recycling Forecast Based on Past Trends
Using historical recycling patterns from 2000 to 2019 as a benchmark, BIMCO has projected the ship recycling potential over the next decade by applying the same recycling frequencies across various ship types. For instance, if 10% of 20-year-old capesize vessels were recycled during that period, a similar rate is assumed moving forward. This approach is considered reliable due to the wide range of market conditions observed over those two decades.
Interestingly, a significant portion of vessels built in the 2000s remain in operation, with only 3% of ships and 5% of DWT having been recycled so far. In contrast, 20% of ships and 67% of DWT built in the 1990s have already been dismantled.
Looking ahead, bulkers, tankers, and container ships are expected to dominate the recycling volume, accounting for 91% of the projected DWT to be recycled. Yet, these three segments represent just over half the number of ships, with general cargo and fishing vessels each contributing nearly as many individual units.
From 2015 to 2024, Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan have remained the leading destinations for ship recycling, handling 86% of the recycled DWT and 58% of total ships. Their dominance increased after 2017, following China’s exit from international ship recycling, which has since reduced China’s share to less than 2% of DWT.
South Asia to Remain Central in Global Recycling Landscape
While Turkey continues to play a notable role in ship recycling—particularly for offshore vessels—South Asia is expected to remain the dominant hub for ship dismantling in the foreseeable future. Despite efforts to expand recycling capacity in other regions, BIMCO anticipates that Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan will continue to handle the bulk of global activity.
The current record for ship recycling, set in 2012 with nearly 1,800 ships and 60 million DWT, may soon be surpassed. Based on projected volumes, annual recycling from 2027 onward could exceed this benchmark as older fleets are retired in greater numbers.
BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Niels Rasmussen, emphasized that actual recycling volumes will ultimately depend on market dynamics. A robust balance between supply and demand may limit the number of ships scrapped, while weaker markets and environmental pressures could accelerate it. Regardless, Rasmussen believes that future volumes will likely far outpace historical levels, reinforcing the urgent need for recycling facilities to meet the stricter compliance standards of the Hong Kong Convention.
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Source: BIMCO
