- BIMCO’s September 2025 outlook highlights resilient container trade outside North America despite US tariff impacts.
- Global cargo volumes are forecast to grow 2.5–3.5% in both 2025 and 2026, with Asian exports driving demand.
- Supply growth is set at 7.3% for 2025 but will slow to 3.1% in 2026, potentially pressuring freight rates.
BIMCO has released its Container Shipping Market Overview & Outlook for September 2025, noting that demand growth is being driven primarily by trade lanes outside of the US.
Impact of US Tariffs
Since “Liberation Day,” most US tariff increases have been fully implemented, with further commodity-specific hikes added. These measures have weakened import volumes, and North America has recorded year-on-year declines since April. BIMCO forecasts a 2% contraction in North American imports for 2025, with a return to growth expected in 2026.
Global Trade Growth
Despite softer conditions in North America, global container trade remains resilient. BIMCO projects overall cargo volume growth of 2.5–3.5% in both 2025 and 2026. Strong growth is particularly evident in Asian exports to Sub-Saharan Africa, South and Central America, and Europe and the Mediterranean, which are expanding faster than the global average.
Routing and Supply Trends
The ongoing diversions via the Cape of Good Hope continue to elevate ship demand, with Suez Canal transits still down 90% compared to pre-Red Sea conflict levels. Should traffic normalize, BIMCO warns ship demand could end up 10% lower than current forecasts.On the supply side, BIMCO has revised its 2025 fleet growth estimate upwards to 7.3%, driven by slower recycling activity and slightly higher sailing speeds. For 2026, the forecast has been reduced to 3.1%, as the accelerated growth in 2025 tapers off.
Market Conditions and Freight Outlook
BIMCO cautions that market conditions could weaken further through the remainder of 2025. While time charter rates and second-hand vessel prices have so far remained largely unaffected by falling freight rates, this may change from the fourth quarter onward. Looking ahead, BIMCO expects more stable supply-demand dynamics to support freight rate stabilization in 2026.
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Source: safety4sea
